Altcoin Winter Drags On as Bears Tighten Their Grip—When Will the Thaw Come?

Market bloodbath continues as altcoins get crushed under relentless selling pressure. No relief in sight—just ask the bagholders.

Bulls in hibernation

Every attempted rally gets smothered by wave after wave of sell orders. Trading volumes tell the story: capitulation dominates as weak hands fold.

Whales feast on retail

Meanwhile, institutional players keep shorting the market—because why pass up free money from overleveraged crypto tourists? The cycle continues.

Until Bitcoin decisively breaks its downtrend, altcoins remain trapped in purgatory. But hey—at least the 'fundamentals are strong,' right?

Based on CryptoQuant data, altcoins have seen ongoing selling pressure since January 2025. The market is not yet as low as the two-year crypto winter in 2023 and 2024, but there can be no altcoin market until a shift in demand. Competition also comes from another airdrop season and high-profile token sales, where users compete for potential new assets with the chance of rapid gains. 

The metric of centralized exchange of buying vs selling shows traders have liquidated $36B from altcoins. Any remaining gains from the late 2024 rally were erased in the first half of 2025, as traders aimed to abandon some of the long-term dead coins. 

The mix of VC-backed tokens and new, more liquid trading pairs for memes continued to drive down demand. Additionally, some of the activity switched directly to decentralized pairs, with no waiting times for listings. 

Altcoin season index remains near lows

Based on the altcoin season index, it is clearly Bitcoin season. The index is at 20 points, meaning even top 100 coins and tokens are not outperforming. Previously, altcoin seasons lasted for weeks or even months. Currently, altcoin rallies are still happening, though within a much shorter time frame. 

In 2025, there have been calls to rethink what constitutes an altcoin season, and if traders WOULD rush into all assets. Some legacy coins had separate rallies, while others recovered based on utility. 

In 2025, some of the top performers included AAVE (AAVE), trading at $260.22, showing increased demand for DeFi lending. 

Other projects like Avalanche (AVAX) show increased activity, but their tokens still trade below the 2024 peak. AVAX returned to $17.95, despite near-record daily activity linked to new Web3 games. 

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is also breaking out of the pack, trading near a three-moth peak at $459.12. The token is seen as risky, potentially erasing its gains. However, BCH buyers bet on an asymmetric rally, as the coin is once again regaining its reputation as an alternative to BTC. 

In the longer run, ETF launches are also tracking legacy coins, potentially bringing external demand. Some categories, such as exchange tokens, are often outpacing the market, with outsized rallies in the case of HYPE and WBT.

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