JPMorgan CEO Slams Market Complacency: Deficits, Tariffs, and Recession Risks Ignored

Jamie Dimon fires warning shots—markets and central banks are asleep at the wheel as fiscal time bombs tick.

Deficits? Tariffs? Recession? No problem—until it is. The financial elite’s ‘this time is different’ mantra gets another stress test.

Bonus jab: Wall Street’s risk models work flawlessly… until they don’t. Ask 2008.

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon believes S&P 500 profit forecasts will suffer

Estimates for S&P 500 earnings began the year NEAR 12% growth but have already fallen. Dimon predicted that in six months, the figure will read 0%, forcing share prices to be lower. “I think earnings estimates will come down, which means P/E will come down,” he said.

He estimated the chance of stagflation, “basically a recession with inflation,” at about twice what the market now assumes.

Elsewhere on Monday, Troy Rohrbaugh, co-head of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment bank, said corporate clients are mostly “wait-and-see” on deals.

He expects second-quarter investment-banking revenue to drop by a “mid-teens” percentage from a year earlier, while trading revenue should rise by a “mid-to-high” single-digit rate.

JPMorgan’s chief also addressed the long-running question of when he will step aside. He repeated the same answer from last year, saying he is likely to stay fewer than five more years as chief executive and then up to two years as executive chairman. “If I’m here for four more years, and maybe two more” in the chairman role, “that’s a long time,” he noted.

Consumer banking head Marianne Lake spoke for a full hour during the presentations, the longest slot of any executive. She is seen as a leading contender to replace Dimon, especially after Chief Operating Officer Jennifer Piepszak said she will not pursue the top job.

KEY Difference Wire: the secret tool crypto projects use to get guaranteed media coverage