SEC Faces Moment of Truth: Canary’s Litecoin ETF Decision Looms—Approval or Another Delay?

The clock ticks down as Wall Street holds its breath—will regulators finally greenlight crypto’s next big institutional gateway or kick the can (again) into 2026?

Behind the scenes: SEC lawyers have burned midnight oil scrutinizing Canary’s filing since Q1, with Chair Gensler’s infamous ’Howey Test’ microscope now trained on Litecoin’s 12-year blockchain history. Market makers whisper about ’political calculus’ as election-year pressure mounts.

Reality check: Approval would send LTC soaring past $150 overnight, while a delay lets hedge funds reload their ’short crypto’ playbooks. Either way, someone’s printing money—just probably not you.

SEC delayed its decision on Canary’s ETF filing on March 11 alongside Grayscale Dogecoin and Litecoin filings

On March 11, the US SEC delayed the approval of several altcoin ETFs, including Grayscale’s filings for Dogecoin, Litecoin, XRP, and Cardano. The commission also postponed its decision on XRP and Solana ETFs of Canary Capital and 21 shares. Not to mention Canary’s filing on its Litecoin ETF.

The regulator also put off its decision on in-kind creation and redemptions for BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC and FETH. Moreover, 21 shares also saw a delay in the proposal to include staking in its Ethereum (ETH) ETF.

Even with the SEC delays, James Seyffart said he believed all of these ETFs had high approval odds. He noted that further delays were inevitable, a standard process for the commission. Additionally, Paul Atkins had yet to be confirmed as the agency’s new chairman at the time, which could have contributed to the delays.

In February, Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, predicted Litecoin had a 90% chance for approval this year; Dogecoin, 75%; Solana (SOL), 70%; and XRP, 65%. They said that Trump’s re-election increases the likelihood for all of these ETFs to get approved in 2025.” Prior to Trump taking office, their probability projections were 5% lower.

Some crypto community members are hopeful that a Litecoin ETF could be approved

The approval of the Litecoin ETF would be a huge step in developing such crypto investment offerings, particularly for altcoins. It would add to the precedent of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), whose spot ETF markets are already established.

However, most analysts remain cautious. The SEC has historically preferred to delay decisions as long as legally permissible, citing the need for more market surveillance agreements and robust investor protections.

In the May 5 X post, Seyffart asserted that the commission could decide today on Canary’s Litecoin ETF. His post invited multiple commentaries; some seemed to dismiss his projections, while others remained hopeful, agreeing that the Litecoin ETF could soon receive approval.

However, one X user with the pseudonym Panda was not very excited about the news, claiming there’s no use for a Litecoin ETF, especially since it still has a lower marker cap than other cryptocurrencies. He argued that he would be more excited if the asset was worth more than $100 billion. So far, Litecoin only has a market capitalization of $6.25 billion.

Another user stated, “5 years of hope, NO THANKS”, hinting that he does not entirely believe the projection is true after past delays and predictions’ failure to materialize.

Other users, however, have interpreted Seyffart’s projections as positive news for the entire crypto industry.

If the SEC issues a delay today, it would not be surprising — but it would be another missed opportunity, critics argue, for the agency to signal progress in modernizing crypto regulation.

Litecoin gears up for breakout rally as ETF hopes and bullish momentum align

According to analyst Crypto Patel, Litecoin is on the verge of a massive rally after ripping through a multi-year resistance line. After months of consolidation in a set range, the altcoin is beginning to exhibit a fresh bullish impulse and is trading at $88.23 at the time of writing. 

Patel notes that LTC has already exited its previous accumulation range between $65 and $85. Short-term price targets are $255 and $ 500. Long targets range from $1k to over $1,458. While LTC has tested investors’ patience, Patel thinks it is all set to make a big move higher in this bullish cycle, possibly reaching $500 soon. This upward momentum may be further reinforced by the possibility of a Litecoin ETF being approved.

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