Trump Axes Russian Energy Sanctions—Nord Stream 2 Gets Green Light
Geopolitical whiplash as the 45th president tears up sanctions playbook. Russian gas giants cheer while DC think tanks scramble to update their PowerPoint decks.
Pipeline politics reloaded: Nord Stream 2 suddenly viable again, proving that in global energy markets, yesterday’s pariah is tomorrow’s profit center. European energy traders already pricing in the arbitrage.
Bonus cynicism: Wall Street quietly adjusts its ’sanctions risk’ Excel models—turns out geopolitical stability is bad for hedge fund volatility premiums.
Trump’s team drafts sanction removal plans
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to Moscow, has been pushing the hardest. Officials involved in the discussions say Witkoff ordered his staff to pull together a full list of all energy-related sanctions on Russia.
Witkoff, who claims to be on friendly terms with Putin, wants to drop them all. But the effort hasn’t gone smoothly. While Trump wants the deal done, some of his team aren’t having it. Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State, said he hasn’t discussed lifting sanctions with anyone.
“This is false. Neither of us have had any conversations about lifting sanctions on Russia as part of a peace deal with Ukraine,” Rubio said in a joint statement with Witkoff. “This is just totally fictitious and irresponsible reporting from POLITICO, a fifth-rate publication. If they have an ounce of journalistic integrity they will fully retract this piece of fiction.”
Despite the public denial, Trump officials were expected to attend peace talks in London last Wednesday but canceled last minute. That meeting was set to include major U.S. proposals: recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, and lifting sanctions. Ukraine immediately rejected both.
While Witkoff is drafting the policy, others in the White House are trying to stop it. Burgum, also known as Doug Burgum, who serves as Interior Secretary and leads the Energy Dominance Council, is reportedly against it.
Rubio too is trying to slow down the push. One official said, “This is not a CAKE in the oven being baked, though the ingredients are being assembled.”
Pipeline investors angle for profit as global prices hang
The stakes aren’t just political. Bringing Nord Stream 2 or Arctic LNG 2 back online could hammer the global gas market. Arctic LNG 2, still under U.S. sanctions, could ship out 13.2 million tons of gas per year if cleared.
Laurent Ruseckas, an executive director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, warned: “If you bring Russian gas back into the market, that would reduce the appetite of potential buyers of U.S. LNG.” That means U.S. exporters like Cheniere Energy would suddenly be going head-to-head with Russian suppliers again.
The U.S. natural gas industry had gained serious ground in Europe after the war broke out. But now, energy firms are struggling under tariffs, steel import costs, and a hazy trade policy from the Trump team. Several have already started scaling back expansion plans.
Behind the scenes, private players are positioning for profits. Stephen Lynch, CEO of Monte Valley Partners, is lobbying hard. Lynch has a history of snapping up distressed Russian energy assets. In 2007, he bought up parts of the old Yukos empire. More recently, he reportedly bought the Swiss branch of SberBank, which was under pressure from U.S. sanctions.
Matthias Warnig, a former intelligence officer and longtime friend of Putin, is also trying to revive the pipeline with help from U.S. investors. Warnig is sanctioned, but he’s reached out to Trump’s team through American business contacts. His plan is separate from Lynch’s and involves another group of investors, said Politico.
One Nord Stream 2 pipe is still working. The other was destroyed in a September 2022 explosion, which also damaged two pipes from Nord Stream 1. Investigations are ongoing. When Lynch tried to get in on the pipeline last year, Biden’s team didn’t care.
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