The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is probing a massive $950 million oil futures position established just before former President Trump's social media post calling for an Iran ceasefire, Bloomberg reported. The investigation focuses on two trading episodes where volume spiked to record levels immediately preceding major geopolitical announcements, with regulators examining Tag 50 data to identify all entities behind the trades. Market volatility surged as Middle East supply disruptions initially sent prices rallying, followed by violent swings as traders speculated about resumed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. CME Group stated it 'vigorously surveils' its markets and collaborates with the CFTC, while emphasizing that any review must include prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that offer related products with limited transparency.

US exporters ship record oil volumes as war disruption drives fuel prices higher

The investigation comes as the physical oil market is under strain. US oil exports surged to a record last week as buyers in Asia and Europe rushed to replace crude lost from the Middle East during the Iran war.

US crude shipments rose to 5.2 million barrels a day, up a little more than 1 million barrels a day from the prior week, based on government data published Wednesday. The US also exported about 7.5 million barrels of refined products, including gasoline and fuel oils, as foreign buyers searched for other suppliers during shortages.

Those export gains, along with a sharp drop in crude imports into the US, pulled inventories lower when many analysts had expected the opposite. The decline helped flip US oil prices higher on Wednesday morning, sending them up by almost 1% at $92.12 after earlier losses.

Analysts at JPMorgan said stronger competition for US barrels could push American prices higher and add to inflation pressure created by the Iran war. They also warned that the export boom and the ongoing loss of Middle East supply because of the Hormuz blockade could lift US petrol and diesel prices and raise political pressure on the Trump administration to curb exports.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the US “feels good” about the chance of a deal, but no date has been set for more talks. In Tehran, a delegation from Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator in US Iran talks, arrived for more discussions.

Since the war began on February 28, average petrol prices have risen by about $1 to $4.10 a gallon, while diesel at $5.63 sits close to its record $5.81, according to data gotten from AAA.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump promised to cut energy costs for consumers in half within a year of taking office. Instead, electricity, home heating oil, and petrol have all climbed faster than inflation.

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