Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm on Intel's overheated rally, warning of an imminent 10% correction as the chip giant's RSI hits 75—deep into overbought territory. The caution comes despite Intel's recent surge fueled by strategic partnerships, which provided a crucial boost while software stocks plunged 7% last week. This divergence highlights the fragile nature of the current market rally, driven by geopolitical ceasefire hopes that lifted the Nasdaq 4.7% and S&P 500 3.6%.
The first boost came from Google, which said it will use multiple generations of Intel central processing units in its artificial intelligence data centers. That was an expansion of an existing relationship.
The second boost came from Intel chief executive Lip-Bu Tan. In a LinkedIn post this week, Tan said Intel was helping design, manufacture, and package custom chips for SpaceX, xAI, and Tesla at Elon Musk’s Terafab project, a chip factory in Texas.
The harder question is whether the business can support the stock rally over time. The case for Intel is no longer about its past. It is about whether future products, factory control, and execution can produce better results later. That is where the company’s buyout of Apollo’s 49% stake in the Ireland Fab 34 joint venture comes in.
Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion, using cash and a $6.5 billion bridge loan until refinancing happens later. Once that deal closes, all manufacturing in Ireland will sit directly under Intel’s control.
Meanwhile, TD Cowen estimates that in Q4 2025, only about 20% of Intel’s x86 server CPU sales will come from its third generation performance chips. That means older tenth and seventh generation x86 server products are still expected to lead unit sales for now.
The company has also said it expects some improvement from Diamond Rapids in the second half of 2025, with some progress expected in Q2. Those chips are tied to the second generation of the Platinum Line, though the family setup is different from what is being sold now.
After that, Coral Rapids is expected to arrive in the second half of 2026 or later. That line could reset competition in x86 server CPUs, but likely at lower price points than today’s products.
Over on Wall Street, Guardian Investment Management cut its stake in Intel by 34.8% in the fourth quarter just this Friday. The company sold 16,300 shares and ended with 30,550 shares worth $1.127 million, and Intel had made up 0.9% of Guardian’s portfolio and ranked as its 29th largest holding.
Other companies opened or increased positions. Corundum Trust Company started a stake worth about $29,000 in the third quarter. Raleigh Capital Management opened a position worth about $29,000 in the fourth quarter. Provenance Wealth Advisors increased its position by 89.2%, adding 446 shares to reach 946 shares worth $32,000.
Strengthening Families & Communities opened a stake worth about $33,000, and GoalVest Advisory opened one worth about $34,000. Overall, 64.53% of Intel shares are held by institutional investors.
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