Argentina Bans Polymarket Following Court Decision on February Inflation Odds

Argentine authorities have ordered a nationwide block of prediction market platform Polymarket, with a Buenos Aires court directing telecom regulator ENACOM to compel internet providers to implement the ban. The move, triggered by formal complaints from gambling oversight bodies LOTBA and the Argentine Chamber of Casinos and Bingos, follows a prosecutor's finding that the platform was operating an unlicensed betting service disguised as a prediction market. Regulators highlighted critical failures including crypto-based payments, credit card deposits, and a complete absence of age or identity verification, creating significant risks for underage access. The ban's timing is particularly notable as it coincides with Polymarket's active trading of odds on Argentina's February inflation data—a sensitive economic indicator.

War death bets draw backlash and legal threats

Nothing has caused more trouble than the war markets. Bloomberg put Polymarket’s Iran-related betting at over $500 million. At one point, the platform was taking bets on a nuclear strike, a market it shut down once it started getting attention online, according to Cryptopolitan’s report.

Kalshi pulled a $54 million market over whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out of power by March 1, saying US-regulated platforms have no business running markets that “directly settle on someone’s death.”

Stew, 35, from Montana, had $10 riding on that Khamenei market. He got the idea one night after coming across reports of a surge in pizza orders near the Pentagon. He got his money back when Kalshi cancelled the market, but he wasn’t buying the company’s reasoning.

“They call it contract trading, which I guess technically speaking, that’s what it is. But if we’re all being honest here, it’s still betting,” he told BBC.

Craig Holman from Public Citizen didn’t mince words. “You have now opened up gambling on almost anything and it has turned into this very, very gruesome type of thing on the death of a head of state,” he said.

On Capitol Hill, Democrats have pushed a bill to bar government officials from trading event contracts. They pointed to one case where someone new to Polymarket walked away with close to half a million dollars after correctly betting on the arrest of Venezuela’s president, shortly before news broke publicly.

Bitcoin price bets pull in $60 million in a single day

Meanwhile, a simple five-minute Bitcoin bet on Polymarket pulled in over $60 million in one day, per Dune Analytics. Kalshi runs the same idea over 15-minute windows. There are no spreads or complicated odds, just a yes or a no, which suits people put off by how traditional sports betting works.

The CFTC dropped its proposed ban on sports and election contracts last month. The regulator’s Trump-picked chairman has backed the platforms, calling event contracts economically useful. But those pushing for tighter rules say the industry is hiding behind financial language to dodge the rules and taxes that betting companies normally have to deal with.

“Nobody is saying that gambling shouldn’t be allowed,” said Ben Schiffrin of Better Markets. “What the states are saying is things that are gambling should be regulated as gambling.”

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