Nvidia’s H200 Chip Sales to China Remain Blocked—U.S. License Approvals Still Pending

Nvidia’s latest high-performance H200 chips remain locked out of the Chinese market as U.S. regulators continue to withhold export licenses—a move that tightens the screws on China’s AI and computing ambitions.

License Limbo

Without Washington’s green light, Nvidia can’t ship the H200 to Chinese buyers. The chip—a powerhouse for AI training and high-performance computing—joins a growing list of restricted technologies caught in the crossfire of U.S.-China tech tensions.

China’s Workaround Race

Local firms aren’t sitting idle. Chinese tech giants are accelerating development of homegrown alternatives and exploring gray-market channels for restricted hardware. It’s a high-stakes game of technological cat-and-mouse—with billions in market cap on the line.

Supply Chain Squeeze

Global AI infrastructure projects that rely on a mix of Chinese and U.S. components now face fresh delays and redesign pressures. The blockage reshuffles procurement playbooks worldwide—and adds another layer of complexity for multinationals walking the geopolitical tightrope.

Market Reactions

Investors are watching closely. Nvidia’s stock has weathered similar restrictions before, but each new round of export controls tests the resilience of its global sales strategy. Meanwhile, Chinese semiconductor stocks often get a speculative bump on news of fresh U.S. restrictions—because nothing says “investment opportunity” like artificial scarcity engineered by geopolitical rivals.

The bottom line: Until licenses are granted, China’s access to cutting-edge AI hardware stays throttled. And in the high-finance world, where every constraint is just a profit opportunity in disguise, someone’s already betting on the shortage.

Licence delay drags on as departments clash over restrictions

Trump’s approval wasn’t the final step. He told his administration to run a national security review before any real sales could start. In January, the commerce department did loosen some export rules. But those exports are still subject to licence approvals from State, Defense, and Energy. Commerce already finished its review, but the State Department is holding things up.

“State is making it very difficult,” said a person familiar with the situation. According to others in the loop, State wants stricter limits, worried the chips could be used by the Chinese military or intelligence agencies.

Chris McGuire, a former export controls official now with the Council on Foreign Relations, explained why. “The state department has deep expertise in whether and how Chinese companies could use these chips to support Chinese defence and intelligence services,” he said. “If state is raising concerns… there are real and significant risks.”

This licensing process is way more complicated than usual. One source said that’s because Trump’s method was backward; he agreed to sell first, then told his agencies to figure out the rules. Now everyone’s trying to play catch-up.

Chinese buyers wait while Nvidia loses momentum

The December deal doesn’t just affect Nvidia. Rival AMD is also caught in the mess. The agreement lets the US government take a 25% cut of the sales and enforces strict approval conditions. Those include:

• Half of all shipments must stay in the US
• Chips must be tested by third-party labs based in the US
• Buyers must report how and where the chips will be used

That’s not all. Chinese companies also have to convince US regulators that H200 chips won’t help China’s military. And so far, that’s a big if.

On China’s side, Beijing is cautious. Regulators are considering giving limited access to companies like Alibaba and ByteDance, but they haven’t finalized anything. They’re waiting to see if the US will even issue licences. Even if they get some, they can’t ship H200 chips abroad, so they won’t be building global data centers with them.

Instead, these companies will likely keep renting servers outside China, or search for alternatives, since there’s no guarantee they’ll get the volume of H200s they need.

Meanwhile, AMD is also stuck. Speaking to analysts this week, CEO Lisa Su confirmed AMD still hasn’t received approval to ship its MI325X chip under the same deal.

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