Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 Unleashes Outcome & Prediction Trading — DeFi’s Next Frontier Just Got Real

Hyperliquid just dropped a bombshell—and traditional finance won't see it coming. The decentralized exchange is launching HIP-4, a protocol upgrade that catapults it into the explosive world of outcome and prediction markets. This isn't just another feature drop; it's a direct challenge to centralized prediction platforms and a massive expansion of DeFi's utility.

From Sports to Politics—Betting Without the Bookie

Imagine wagering on election results, Super Bowl outcomes, or climate milestones—all settled automatically on-chain, with no middleman taking a cut. That's the promise. HIP-4 transforms Hyperliquid from a pure perpetual swaps venue into a full-spectrum prediction engine. Users can create markets on virtually any future event, with liquidity and settlement governed by code, not corporate policy.

Why This Changes Everything for Traders

It opens a trillion-dollar sandbox. Prediction markets have been crypto's 'next big thing' for years, plagued by clunky interfaces and thin liquidity. Hyperliquid's existing high-speed infrastructure and deep liquidity pools could finally crack the code. Traders get a new asset class; speculators get a playground; and the protocol earns fees from a whole new revenue stream. It's a classic crypto triple-threat.

The Fine Print & The Skeptic's Take

Regulatory gray zones? Absolutely. Creating seamless markets for real-world events will attract scrutiny. And let's be honest—for every legitimate 'will the Fed cut rates?' market, there'll be ten on celebrity gossip. But that's the trade-off for permissionless innovation. One cynical jab? Wall Street spends millions on research for an edge; now anyone can bet their lunch money on the same insights—and probably get just as rich, or just as wrecked.

The Bottom Line

HIP-4 isn't an incremental update—it's a strategic cannonball into uncharted waters. It leverages DeFi's core strengths: transparency, accessibility, and composability. If it works, Hyperliquid doesn't just expand its own ecosystem; it pulls a massive, underserved market on-chain. One thing's certain: the line between trading and forecasting just got blurrier. And in crypto, blurred lines are usually where the fortunes are made.

HIP-4 introduces third-party outcome markets

HIP-4 will become another builder-driven platform, seeking novel applications for HyprCore’s trading technology. The previous performance of HIP-3 has shown that builders can react within days, tapping highly active markets. HIP-3 only took days to offer silver and gold trading, becoming one of the most liquid markets for on-chain metal contracts. 

HIP-4 will bring dated contracts, as well as derivative trading without leverage or liquidations, unlike the other margin trading markets. 

The outcomes technology is still in the testnet stage, and the live markets will be deployed after testing is completed. Hyperliquid will settle the outcome markets in its native stablecoin, USDH. Native Markets, the issuer of USDH, announces the usage of the native stablecoin.

HIP-4 outcome trading markets, denominated in USDH.

Hyperliquid. https://t.co/I1ccePGbqU

— Native Markets (@nativemarkets) February 2, 2026

At the end stage, the platform will allow permissionless deployment for new outcome pairs. 

With this move, HyperEVM will become the next chain to host a potentially lively prediction market. This time, Hyperliquid is behind the trend, while other networks already host some of the leading prediction markets. 

Is crypto activity shifting to Hyperliquid?

Hyperliquid built up significant market depth and even became a competitor to Binance’s trading volumes. The biggest problem for the platform is liquidations, which erase open interest. 

Following the latest market downturn, as of February 2, Hyperliquid carried just $1.77B in BTC open interest and $4.97B in total open interest. Despite the outflows, HIP-3 continued growing, with over $1B in open interest and $4.8B in trading activity. 

Hyperliquid may be preferable due to its transparent markets and fewer signs of deliberate manipulation. The markets have inherent volatility and are affected by whales, but some pairs have built robust liquidity.

Jeff Yan, CEO and co-founder of Hyperliquid, noted the platform must remain neutral. 

‘The house of all finance must be credibly neutral. This means no private investors, no market Maker deals, and no protocol fees to any company,’ wrote Yan in a recent post.

The shift to Hyperliquid happens as Binance and Wintermute had to defend themselves against accusations of orchestrating the October 11 market crash. 

Following the recent market activity, HYPE retained its recent gains, trading NEAR its one-week highs of $32.12. $18.65M were poured into HYPE buybacks in the past week, for an average buyback price of $28.50.

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