ASML’s EUV Lithography Monopoly Powers Record Revenue, Riding Nvidia’s AI Surge

ASML just printed money. The Dutch chipmaking juggernaut smashed revenue records, its monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems becoming the indispensable engine for the AI boom.

The Engine Room of AI

Forget the flashy GPUs—the real bottleneck sits in a cleanroom in Veldhoven. Every advanced chip powering Nvidia's data-centre dominance, every cutting-edge AI accelerator, starts its life in an ASML machine. The company doesn't just supply the industry; it governs the physics of what's possible. No EUV, no 3nm, no AI arms race. It's that simple.

A Monopoly Forged in Light

Competitors? They're decades and billions behind. ASML's EUV tech represents a vertical climb of complexity—manipulating light at a scale once thought commercially unviable. The result is a grip on the semiconductor supply chain so tight it makes OPEC look like a casual book club. Foundries queue up and pay whatever it takes, because the alternative is technological obsolescence.

The Financial Reality

The numbers speak for themselves: record revenue, soaring demand, and a backlog stretching to the horizon. While AI startups burn cash on compute, ASML collects the rent on the very fabric of their business models. It's the ultimate 'picks and shovels' play, with a Dutch accent and an ironclad patent portfolio. Wall Street analysts, for once, are united—this isn't a cycle; it's a paradigm shift, and ASML holds the only key.

One cynical finance jab? In a sector hyped on 'decentralization,' the entire digital future hinges on the most centralized, geopolitically fragile manufacturing process ever devised. The irony is almost as valuable as the stock.

What's next? Capacity, capacity, capacity. The world wants more chips, and ASML is the only gatekeeper. The question isn't about demand—it's about how fast the company can build these multi-hundred-million-euro marvels. For now, the future of computing is being written with EUV light, and ASML holds the pen.

EUV machines anchor control over advanced chip manufacturing

Lithography is the step that turns a chip design into real hardware. ASML is the only company in the world that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. These EUV tools are used to produce the most advanced semiconductors. In the wider lithography market, ASML controls about 90% of global share.

Bank of America analyst Didier Scemama said that lead is set to grow. “ASML has industrialised next gen EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography technology, which we believe will underpin many of the disruptive trends of this decade,” Didier wrote in a Wednesday note. He released the note after ASML reported fourth‑quarter 2025 bookings that came in at more than double what analysts expected.

Javier Correonero, an equity analyst at Morningstar, explained why lithography matters. “Lithography was the building block of any chip,” Javier said. He said machines built by ASML have been involved in producing about 99% of all semiconductors made worldwide.

EUV systems matter most for artificial intelligence. ASML produces two versions. Low numerical aperture EUV is used to manufacture today’s AI chips, including Nvidia’s Blackwell processors.

High numerical aperture EUV is more advanced and is currently used for research and development on future chip designs.

Both systems work in the same way. Powerful lasers hit molten tin droplets inside a vacuum chamber. That impact creates plasma. The plasma emits EUV light. Ultra‑precise mirrors guide the light toward a mask that carries the pattern for one chip layer. The image is reduced and projected onto a silicon wafer.

Bookings, pricing, and buyers shape the next phase

These machines are not bought by Nvidia. They are purchased by chip foundries such as Taiwan’s TSMC. Those foundries build chips for designers like Nvidia using tools supplied by ASML.

Javier said competitors remain far behind. He pointed to Nikon and Canon in Japan, which still sell lithography tools for older chip processes. “They are large conglomerates which have invested only a tiny fraction of what ASML has invested over three decades. At this point, catching up is virtually impossible,” Javier said.

EUV tools now make up most of ASML’s order book. In the fourth quarter of 2025, EUV systems accounted for €7.4 billion of €13.2 billion in total net bookings. Across the full year, the company sold 48 EUV systems. Those sales generated €11.6 billion in revenue.

The company does not publish official prices. Analysts said that the most advanced high NA EUV machines sell for between €320 million and €400 million each. Low NA EUV systems sell for about €220 million, Javier said.

TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are already testing high NA EUV tools in laboratory settings. “Once customers are accustomed to the tool, it is gradually introduced into high volume manufacturing,” Javier said. “High NA is expected to reach high volume manufacturing by 2027‑2028, with Intel as the first adopter.”

ASML shares ROSE 36% last year and climbed another 32% since January 1. Earlier this month, the company became only the third European firm to reach a valuation above $500 billion, a level it has held.

Analysts expect demand to remain strong as advanced chips stay critical to AI infrastructure. ASML forecasts 2026 net sales between €34 billion and €39 billion, compared with €32.7 billion recorded in 2025.

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