Metaplanet Defies $680M Bitcoin Write-Down, Raises FY2025 Forecasts in Bold Crypto Bet

Talk about doubling down. While traditional finance flinches, one company just stared down a massive crypto loss and said 'more, please.'

The Write-Down That Wasn't a White Flag

Forget the red ink—Metaplanet just upgraded its entire outlook. A staggering $680 million charge against its Bitcoin holdings? Treated it like a speed bump on the road to a higher valuation. The move screams long-term conviction, treating the volatility as a cost of doing business in the digital age.

Forecasting Through the Noise

Raising guidance after such a hit isn't just optimism; it's a strategic cannonball. It signals that core operations—or future crypto plays—are expected to generate enough firepower to not just recover, but surge past the impairment. They're betting the farm that the underlying Bitcoin thesis remains intact, and that their other ventures will pick up the slack.

The Cynic's Corner: A Masterclass in Narrative?

Let's be real for a second. In the hallowed halls of legacy finance, a nearly three-quarter-billion dollar write-down usually triggers panic, boardroom coups, and hastily written-down asset values. Here? It's a backdrop for bullish projections. It's either visionary fortitude or a spectacularly confident pivot—aiming to make Wall Street's quarter-by-quarter myopia look downright archaic. One thing's clear: they're not playing by the old rulebook.

Metaplanet's play is a high-stakes declaration that in the new financial paradigm, paper losses are just that—paper. The real game is played in the next chapter. Whether this is fearless or foolish will depend entirely on what Bitcoin does next. But for now, they've turned a headline of loss into a statement of intent.

Metaplanet revises FY2025 earnings forecasts amid Bitcoin write-down

*Notice Regarding Revision of Full-Year Earnings Forecast for Fiscal Year Ending December 2025, Recording of Bitcoin Impairment Loss, and Announcement of Full-Year Earnings Forecast for Fiscal Year Ending December 2026* pic.twitter.com/VIKYRYb981

— Metaplanet Inc. (@Metaplanet) January 26, 2026

According to the updated full-year revised earnings forecast, the Bitcoin treasury company estimated revenue of 8,905 million JPY (approximately $58.2 million) and operating income of 6,287 million JPY (approximately $41.1 million) for the fiscal year ending in December 2025.

These figures represented an increase of 31% and 33.8%, respectively, from earlier projections disclosed on October 1, 2025, of 6,800 million JPY ($44.4 million) in revenue and 4,700 million JPY ($30.7 million) in operating income.

Despite an improved operating outlook, Metaplanet now anticipates an ordinary loss of 98,558 million JPY ($644.6 million USD) and a net loss attributable to parent company shareholders of 76,633 million JPY ($498.89 million USD), despite the improved operating performance, primarily because of a non-cash Bitcoin write-down. 

The company said it will announce the final figures in the earnings report scheduled for February 16, 2026.

The company declared its Bitcoin holdings to the market at the end of each quarter during FY2025 in compliance with relevant accounting requirements. Consequently, as of December 31, 2025, a Bitcoin impairment loss of $681.19 million was reported as a non-operating expense.

However, the BTC treasury firm reported a steady growth throughout FY2025, despite the short-term price volatility.

By the end of 2025, BTC holdings had increased from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC. For the whole of last year, BTC Yield’s BTC growth rate per diluted share reached 568%, indicating that the firm’s capital strategy and BTC acquisition program had surpassed initial goals.

Metaplanet further revealed in the report that medium to long-term BTC accumulation and capital plan are still on track.

According to the Metaplanet analytics page, it now has 1.1 billion issued shares with an average daily trading volume of 29.85 million during the last three months. Since adopting its BTC treasury strategy, the company has achieved returns of 2,405%.

Its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) surpasses its initial market capitalization by 220.67 times, highlighting the impact of its crypto holdings. Additionally, BTC holdings represent 0.16715% of its portfolio, with a market NAV of 1.21.

The company further stated that because predicting Bitcoin prices is inherently complex, it does not offer predictions for regular income or net income.

Metaplanet targets strong 2026 growth across core businesses

Metaplanet said it expects operating income and revenue to continue to rise in fiscal year 2026, driven by its Bitcoin generation and hotel business.

Following the sharp expansion of its Bitcoin holdings in fiscal year 2025, Metaplanet said a larger capital and BTC available as collateral should support stable premium income from Bitcoin-related options. 

According to the company, the hotel business is expected to deliver consistent performance, contributing to overall growth. The consolidated earnings prediction for fiscal year 2026 projects operating income of 11,400 million JPY (about $74.5 million) and revenue of 16,000 million JPY (roughly $104.6 million). 

Notably, the 2026 anticipated growth indicates a 79.7% increase in revenue and an 81.3% increase in operating income compared to FY2025 predictions of 8,905 million JPY and 6,287 million JPY, respectively.

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