All Eyes on February 20: Supreme Court Delays Ruling on Trump’s Tariffs - What It Means for Markets

The calendar just got circled in red. February 20th is now the date every trader, investor, and algorithm is watching. The Supreme Court's decision to delay its ruling on former President Trump's contested tariffs has thrown a fresh variable into an already volatile market equation.

The Wait Begins

No new legal arguments. No additional briefs. Just a holding pattern that stretches for weeks. The Court's move effectively presses pause on a major geopolitical and economic policy decision, leaving markets to price in uncertainty. Analysts are scrambling to model scenarios ranging from full reinstatement to complete dismissal.

Market Mechanics in Limbo

Supply chains that had begun to adjust are now frozen mid-pivot. Corporate treasuries are recalculating hedging strategies for the umpteenth time. The delay itself acts as a de facto policy—creating a fog where clear signals should be. It's the financial equivalent of waiting for the other shoe to drop, except no one knows if it's a wingtip or a combat boot.

Digital Assets Watch

While traditional forex and commodities twitch, the crypto sphere watches with detached interest. Bitcoin doesn't care about tariff codes. Decentralized finance protocols operate on a different set of rules—global, borderless, and largely indifferent to the political theater of legacy systems. Yet, capital flows are capital flows. Any major dislocation in traditional markets often sends a search for alternatives.

The Provocative Close

So we wait. For thirty days, the market trades on whispers, leaks, and the overconfident predictions of pundits who’ve been wrong before. It’s a masterclass in manufactured suspense—because nothing gets the heart pumping like the threat of a policy change that could've been resolved today, but was conveniently scheduled for tomorrow. After all, in modern finance, uncertainty isn't a bug; it's a feature that keeps the advisory fees rolling in.

Polymarket bettors see a 31% chance court favors Trump

At hearings late last year, the justices were skeptical enough of the WHITE House’s claims that the markets are now expecting the Supreme Court to rule against Trump.

According to the betting website Polymarket, there is a 31% chance the court will side with the White House, though this probability has decreased since earlier this month.

Trade lawyers claim that the upcoming US Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs could deny him the legal power to carry out new tariff threats, including those aimed at NATO members over Greenland’s sovereignty.

The lawyers stated that the targeted tariff threats made by TRUMP over the weekend would likely rest on the same legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) that the Supreme Court will decide.

Michael Lowell, partner and chair of the Global Regulatory Enforcement Group, stated, “Similar to the Brazil tariffs, if the Supreme Court rules IEEPA doesn’t give the president tariff power, then these tariffs being threatened on NATO members WOULD be illegal.”

As reported by Cryptopolitan, Trump announced Saturday that if a deal is not reached, allowing Washington to acquire Greenland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland would face increasing tariffs, starting at 10% on February 1 and rising to 25% on June 1.

According to Michael Lowell, if the Court overturns the tariffs, companies in the NATO group that would have to pay the threatened tariffs may have to take new legal steps. “It may still be necessary for companies that import from those countries to bring suit to enforce […]that would be a quick lawsuit since the law would be clear by the ruling.”

European leaders have described this latest tariff salvo as a FORM of blackmail. They are reportedly deliberating on potential responses, including implementing an anti-coercion instrument which could limit US access to the European Union, the world’s third-largest economy.

Trump to use Section 232 investigation on minerals to levy tariffs

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it’s “very unlikely” that the Supreme Court will overturn Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs. According to him, even if the administration loses, new tariffs will go into effect immediately.

Trade attorneys also say the president could use the recently completed Section 232 investigation on critical minerals to levy tariffs. Greenland is a mineral-rich island that is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark.

The section dictates that if negotiations do not work, “it may be appropriate to impose import restrictions, such as tariffs, if satisfactory agreements are not reached in a timely manner.” 

In the latest Section 232 policy on critical minerals, the language states that the executive branch of the government reserves the right for the president to impose tariffs.

However, a ruling against Trump on tariffs would deliver his biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House. A decision against Trump could also open the way for more than $130 billion in refunds. 

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