Polymarket Faces Portugal Ban After Frenzied Betting Activity Linked to Presidential Elections

Portugal just slammed the door on prediction markets. The target? Polymarket—a decentralized platform that saw a surge in political wagering during the country's recent presidential race.

The Regulatory Hammer Drops

Portuguese authorities moved to block access to the site, citing concerns over unlicensed gambling and potential market manipulation. The action follows a noticeable spike in election-related contracts on Polymarket, where users bet crypto on political outcomes.

Decentralization Meets Old-School Rules

Polymarket operates on Polygon, sidestepping traditional financial gatekeepers. That very feature—heralded as a breakthrough in crowd-sourced forecasting—is what triggered the crackdown. Regulators aren't buying the 'information markets' argument when it looks, smells, and trades like gambling.

A Global Tug-of-War

This isn't an isolated scuffle. From the U.S. to Europe, prediction platforms are dancing on regulatory razor wire. Portugal's ban signals that even niche political betting won't fly under the radar—especially when real money, even in crypto form, changes hands.

The Irony of 'Free' Markets

Here's the cynical finance jab: traditional markets can swing on insider whispers and hedge fund herds, but let the public place a transparent bet with a few bucks of crypto? That's where regulators suddenly find their backbone.

Portugal's move cuts a clear line. For crypto natives, it's another case of legacy systems fearing what they can't control. For regulators, it's simple: play by the old rules, or don't play at all. The frenzy around the presidential election didn't just predict a winner—it predicted this clash. And the house always wins.

Polymarket restricted after presidential elections

Similar to the case of France, Portugal reacted to Polymarket just as the platform was gaining legs in the country. The high-volume prediction market for Portugal’s presidential elections triggered the regulator’s reaction. 

Polymarket has been viewed with skepticism, as its information is wildly popular on social media. For some, this exposure to election predictions may sway the process, and its effect is not neutral. 

The local regulator stated Polymarket lacked a gambling license, and the state also wanted to ban political betting. 

Beyond the monetary value, Polymarket is also used as a real-time gauge of sentiment. The platform’s political pairs are some of the most active and liquid, attracting both speculation and serious analysis. Market participants and social media also have a real-time preview of the appeal of candidates, which may paradoxically further sway election results. 

Polymarket still carries predictions on the second round of Portugal’s elections

Polymarket is still closely watched as new prediction markets have arisen for the second round of the elections, scheduled for February 8. 

The current market to predict the winner has already achieved over $121M in trading volumes, while singling out António José Seguro as the probable winner. The market activity is accelerating, just as Polymarket may discontinue access for local traders. 

According to local media, the regulator increased its scrutiny as Polymarket traded $4M in positions just before the first round of the election results was announced. 

“The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal , and under national law, betting on political events or happenings, whether national or international, is not permitted,” announced the local regulator SRIJ. 

The regulator announced it only recently became aware of Polymarket’s activity. The regulator expressed worries about potential insider trading and the usage of exit poll information. 

Polymarket was still operational in Portugal on Monday, and the site may be accessed through wallets or other tools. However, Portugal’s move raises the issue of increased scrutiny, just as platforms became more confident that their activity was not considered a FORM of gambling.

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