Polymarket Traders Turn on Hassett After Trump’s Remarks - Prediction Markets React to Political Whiplash

Prediction markets don't wait for press releases—they price sentiment in real-time. When a political heavyweight speaks, the digital money moves. This week, the action centered on a familiar name suddenly looking vulnerable.

The Hassett Effect—Or Lack Thereof

Kevin Hassett, once a central figure in certain political forecasting circles, saw his market-approved credibility evaporate overnight. The catalyst? Public remarks from Donald Trump that directly contradicted the economic narrative Hassett had been associated with. Polymarket contracts tied to his influence nosedived as traders scrambled to short the new reality.

It's a brutal, efficient, and utterly merciless process. One minute you're a data point in a bullish thesis; the next, you're liquidity for the other side. There's no shareholder meeting, no earnings call—just a crowd-sourced verdict rendered in ETH and USDC.

Why This Is Bigger Than One Consultant

This isn't just about one advisor's standing. It's a live-fire demonstration of how decentralized prediction markets are absorbing—and amplifying—political risk. They're becoming the canary in the coal mine for conventional wisdom, often moving hours or days before traditional pundits update their talking points. The volatility isn't a bug; it's the feature.

For the crypto-native, it's validation. For the traditional finance crowd watching from the sidelines, it's pure chaos—the kind of chaos that, ironically, creates the most honest prices. After all, what's more cynical than betting against a former White House economist? Finance in a nutshell.

The takeaway? In the age of information warfare, prediction markets are the first battlefield. Sentiment is the asset, and today's insider is tomorrow's target. The markets have spoken. Again.

Immediately, the odds of Kevin Warsh clinching the nomination jumped to 60% on Polymarket as of Friday afternoon, while traders placed just a 17% chance that Hassett WOULD land the job. However, today the odds of Warsh have settled at 56% as Hassett’s went up to 18%.

18% of polymarket bettors stick with Hassett over Trump’s obscurity

For weeks, the president has signaled he is looking at either Warsh or Hassett to replace Powell, adding that he has ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “because he wants to stay where he is.” Between the two candidates that could be nominated by Trump, Hassett is widely viewed as the most loyal.

Just as he did with Scott Bessent, Trump pulled the same card, but on Hasset, he sounded unsure. Addressing WHITE House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles on Friday, Trump said, “We don’t want to lose him [Hassett], Susie, but we’ll see how it all works out.” This has kept 11 million bettors thinking he still has a chance.

Current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been considered a long shot, came third with 15%. Traders saw just an 8% chance that BlackRock exec Rick Rieder could win the role. 

The odds of Warsh taking the role have gone up mainly because of his recent dovish stance. However, when he served the Fed, Warsh was a hawk worried about inflation and called for higher rates even during times of financial crisis.

“Warsh is a bit more of a wild card given past hawkishness and recent dovishness,” a team of Wells Fargo strategists wrote in a note earlier this year. Warsh also jumped to 59% odds on Kalshi, another prediction market. Hassett and Waller got 18% and 14% odds, respectively.

Trump has not set a specific date to name his pick for the next chairman. Powell’s term at the helm expires in May, though he could choose to stay on the board through 2028. He has so far declined to comment on whether he will remain a Fed governor.

Hassett says that Powell is a good man amidst his investigation 

As the Fed chair seat is being interviewed for, the Trump administration is carrying out an investigation into Powell. As reported by Cryptopolitan, Powell has been accused of cost ‌ overruns for a $2.5 billion project to renovate two historical buildings at the Fed’s headquarters complex. 

Powell, however, has denied wrongdoing and said the unprecedented actions were a pretext to put ⁠pressure on him for ‌not satisfying US President Donald Trump’s long-running demands for sharply lower interest rates. The central bank issued three quarter-point cuts last year, lowering the target range to 3.5% to 3.75%.

On its website, the Fed attributed spending increases to unexpected costs of materials and labor, more asbestos than anticipated, and toxic contamination in the soil. It added that the project will “reduce costs over time by allowing the Board to consolidate most of its operations.”

Hassett said in an interview with Fox Business Network that he wished there had been more transparency ​from the Fed about cost overruns of building renovations.

“The bottom line ‌is, I expect, you know, Jay is a good man – I expect that there’s nothing to see here, that the cost overruns are related to things like asbestos, as he says. But I sure wish they had been more transparent,” Hassett said.

Foreign central bank leaders, former US government officials, and current American lawmakers across the political spectrum have blasted the investigation. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee’s slight GOP majority, threatened to block any of Trump’s candidates for the Federal Reserve after news of the investigation broke.

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