Trump’s Moves & China’s Export Bans Set to Launch Gold, Silver to Record 2026 Highs

The old guard's getting a shock to the system. Political turbulence and strategic resource wars are converging, creating a perfect storm for traditional safe havens. Forget steady growth—we're looking at a potential moonshot for metals that haven't seen this kind of tailwind in years.

The Trigger Finger on Global Trade

New policy directives are reshaping international commodity flows overnight. When major exporters slam the door, the scramble for what's left begins. It's a classic supply shock, but the demand side isn't sitting idle—fear and speculation are pouring gasoline on the fire.

Why Metals Are the New Tech Stocks

In a world of digital everything, physical assets with finite supply are having a renaissance. They're the ultimate hard drive, immune to hackers and central bank whims. While algorithms trade digital tokens, the smart money is building fortresses out of bullion.

The 2026 Forecast: Not Your Grandpa's Portfolio

Analysts are tearing up conservative projections. The combination of geopolitical chess and raw economic maneuvering points to a price trajectory that could make crypto's 2021 bull run look like a warm-up act. The charts aren't just climbing; they're preparing to break their own rules.

So, while fund managers rebalance their 'diversified' portfolios for the tenth time this quarter, the real action is in the assets that have been storing value since before the concept of fiat currency existed. Sometimes, the best innovation is remembering what always worked.

Trade conflicts and resource controls tighten supply

Daniel Casali, a partner in investment strategy at Evelyn Partners, said his team remains positive on both metals. He pointed to ongoing geopolitical stress, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcements last April, as drivers that continue to support gold prices.

“When TRUMP started to raise tariffs, China started to respond, so they pulled out what I would define as a battle between the U.S. and China of resource nationalism,” Daniel said.

He said China answered those tariffs by restricting rare earth exports, which exposed how critical those materials are to U.S. defense, technology, and AI supply chains.

He added that export limits later extended to silver, a key input for AI hardware, electric vehicles, renewables, and industrial production across the U.S. and Europe.

Investors are now watching for a possible in-person meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi in April. “How that goes? No idea,” Daniel said. “But you bet your bottom dollar export controls are going to be a key discussion point.”

Political risk rose again in the first week of 2026 after the U.S. removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the WHITE House discussed possible military action to bring Greenland under U.S. control.

Daniel said both Washington and Beijing are lining up resources to gain leverage. China controls exports of rare earths and silver, while Trump is working to restrict flows of Venezuelan oil that largely go to China.

Price targets rise as shortages and policy risk persist

Ned Naylor‑Leyland, an investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management, said he said it was “absolutely” possible for gold to reach $5,000 this year and for silver to break $100. Based on current conditions, he said investors “should assume that that would definitely happen this year.”

Ned said silver remains the tighter market. He pointed to shortages caused by Beijing’s export controls. “Silver is basically disappearing now to China and India, there’s about a $10 premium being paid in Shanghai,” he said. He added that trading now centers on physical bars, not screens.

Silver plays a critical role across industries, from computers and phones to cars, appliances, and weapons systems. “The thing about silver is, if you don’t have it, you can’t build anything,” Ned said. “Whether it’s electronics or white goods or missiles or cars, you don’t have it, you can’t have it.”

On gold, he said wider political risk and easier monetary policy remain key. “The base case with gold is presuming central banks remain dovish,” he said. “We’re in a rate cutting environment with unconventional policies and chasing down Chairman Powell. Unless they reverse course and start hiking, you can expect gold to do pretty much what it did last year or more.”

Paul Syms, head of EMEA ETF fixed income and commodity product management at Invesco, said the same trends look even stronger now.

He added that Powell’s investigation raised fresh concerns about Fed independence and U.S. monetary policy. A dozen global central bankers, including the heads of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, later issued a statement backing Powell.

Paul said with ongoing worries around the dollar, budget deficits, lower rates, high geopolitical tension, and rising industrial demand for silver, there is no clear NEAR term trigger that points to falling metal prices.

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