Crypto’s $237M Unlock Wave: The Coming Supply Pressure Test

A quarter-billion-dollar wave of linear token unlocks is building—and it's about to hit the market.

## The Unlock Clock is Ticking

Protocols don't just launch tokens and walk away. They lock them up. For teams, for investors, for foundations. It's the standard playbook. But those locks have timers. And right now, a synchronized batch of those timers is counting down to zero, promising to flood the ecosystem with fresh supply.

## The Mechanics of the Flood

Linear unlocks aren't a sudden dump. They're a steady drip-feed. Day after day, week after week, a predetermined number of tokens become liquid. It's designed to prevent market chaos, but it creates a persistent, nagging headwind. Think of it as a slow-release valve on a pressure cooker—it manages the explosion but can't stop the steam.

## The Market's Digestive System

Can the market absorb $237 million in new supply without a hiccup? That's the billion-dollar question. Bullish narratives focus on adoption and inflows. Bearish ones whisper about dilution and sell pressure. The truth usually lands somewhere in the messy middle, where tokenomics meets trader psychology and, let's be honest, a bit of hope.

## A Classic Finance Dilemma, Digitized

This is just traditional finance's supply-and-demand drama wearing a crypto jacket. Companies issue new shares; protocols unlock new tokens. Both actions dilute the existing pool. The only difference here is the transparency—you can often see the exact unlock schedule on a blockchain, a brutal kind of honesty Wall Street rarely offers. It's scheduled anxiety, traded 24/7.

So watch the charts, but watch the unlock calendars closer. The next major price move might not be driven by an Elon Musk tweet or a Fed announcement, but by a smart contract executing code it was always meant to run. The market's about to find out if its appetite is as big as its ambition. After all, in crypto, the 'fundamentals' sometimes just mean a lot of people decided not to sell today.

The total value of linear unlocks will exceed $237M. This week’s unlocks follow the previous period’s unlocks of just around $218M. 

This week will also host the Stable project unlock, valued at $566.38M based on pre-market trading. The unlock will coincide with the main net launch and general native token generation, bringing a new network specialzied in stablecoin transfers. The effect of the Stable launch will be different compared to other projects, which already have a trading history and reactions to regular unlocks.

Market expects $106M in cliff unlocks

The coming week expects $106M in cliff unlocks, of which several will bring more than $5M in new tokens to the market. 

Significant cliff unlocks are coming for CONX, APT, STRK, CHEEL, LINEA, and BB tokens. 

Connex (CONX) expects one of the most significant shifts in its supply structure, with $21.85M in new unlocks. CONX is 82% unlocked, with more linear or scheduled regular unlocks until April 2027. 

Market prepares to absorb Web3 unlocks 

Most of the unlocks in the coming week come from Web3 projects, related to infrastructure or individual apps. 

Pump.fun (PUMP) will unlock $30.9M in new tokens, and may attempt to balance some of the inflows through its regular buybacks. 

Aptos, one of the busiest chains for DeFi, will add $19.9M worth of tokens. LINEA tokens will add another $11M in new supply. LINEA will add 6.78% to its circulating supply, one of the most impactful unlocks in the coming week. 

Other notable Web3 unlocks include Mocaverse, Avantis, and others. Web3 projects still carry their legacy unlocks from early VC backing, while continuing to absorb the price pressure. 

Overall, token unlocksh have a long-term effect on project reputations. Even with a growing price, the unlocks do not allow the asset to break out to a higher price range. Most of the projects with regular unlocks see their total market cap grow, even with a much weaker token price growth. Not all projects with a rising market capitalization are capable of staging a token breakout.

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