Trump Applauds India’s Strategic Cutback on Russian Oil—What’s Next for Global Markets?
India’s pivot away from Russian oil grabs headlines—and Trump’s approval. Here’s why it matters.
The Energy Shift:
New Delhi’s reduced reliance on Moscow sends shockwaves through commodity markets. No numbers? No problem—the trend speaks for itself.
Geopolitical Ripple Effect:
Sanctions workarounds and supply chain chess moves dominate the playbook. ‘Strategic diversification’ sounds better than ‘desperate hedging,’ doesn’t it?
Finance Irony:
Wall Street shrugs—crude volatility just means another derivative to package and sell to pension funds. Some things never change.
Active moves, passive profits. The energy game’s latest twist proves once again: everyone’s playing, but the house always wins.
India faces heavy tariffs as trade talks inch forward
India’s goods are currently slammed with 50% tariffs by the U. S. , that’s even worse than China’s 47% rate. Meanwhile, Indian professionals looking to work in the U. S. must cough up $100,000 for H1B visas. That number alone has created a major roadblock in bilateral cooperation.
But now, negotiations are back on track, and according to Oxford Economics’ Alexandra Hermann, both sides believe a trade deal could land “by the end of the year, possibly even in the next few weeks.”
If that happens, tariffs on Indian goods could drop to 20%, putting India on the same footing as countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. But don’t expect miracles.
Hermann said the rate probably won’t go down to 15%, like Japan or South Korea, thanks to India’s continued ties with Russia, unresolved issues with agriculture, and its limited commitment to invest big in the U. S.
On top of that, the U. S. slapped sanctions last month on Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia’s top oil firms. Those sanctions kick in on November 21, and they’re already having an effect. Indian and Chinese refiners have started cutting down imports of Russian oil.
According to Reuters, the price gap between Russian oil and Brent is now at its widest in Asia in a year, as refiners from both countries scale back.
Still, India’s Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry didn’t respond to CNBC when asked if the government was officially reducing Russian oil purchases. And the bigger picture? It’s complicated.
Prateek Pandey from Rystad Energy said straight up: “Over the long term, completely phasing out Russian oil isn’t realistic for India.” He pointed out that if Russian crude gets cheaper, India’s “economics first” strategy will be put to the test.
Trump presses Orban on Hungary’s Russian oil use
Trump isn’t just watching India. On Friday, he sat down with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to talk about Hungary’s dependency on Russian oil.
It was their first one-on-one meeting since TRUMP got back to the White House in January, and Russia was front and center. Both leaders are loud about their anti-immigration views, but Orban’s oil ties to Moscow put him in a tight spot.
Trump has been on a mission to pressure European countries to stop buying Russian oil to choke Moscow’s funding for its war in Ukraine. But Hungary hasn’t let go of Russian energy since the 2022 invasion, even with EU and NATO allies criticizing the move.
Ahead of the meeting, Hungarian officials said Orban wanted to push for a U. S. -Russia dialogue and possibly get exemptions from U. S. energy sanctions.
Trump had earlier said he’d meet Vladimir Putin in Budapest, but the Kremlin pulled back after rejecting a ceasefire. “All diplomatic negotiations are hard,” Orban told Hungarian state media, “but I expect a friendly and easy negotiation.”
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