Bitcoin Treasury Warning: KindlyMD CEO Predicts Corporate Crypto Casualties Ahead
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries facing brutal Darwinian selection—only the strongest will survive the coming market evolution.
The Survival Test
Not every company jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon possesses the strategic depth to weather crypto's notorious volatility. KindlyMD's chief executive drops the uncomfortable truth bomb that separates temporary trend-followers from genuine long-term believers.
Corporate Darwinism in Digital Assets
Companies treating Bitcoin as a quick profit play rather than a fundamental treasury strategy face inevitable extinction. The coming market cycle promises to separate the wheat from the chaff—with unprepared treasuries becoming cautionary footnotes in crypto history.
Strategic resilience beats temporary enthusiasm every time. Because when the market turns—and it always does—only those with actual conviction survive. The rest become expensive learning experiences for business school case studies. Just another reminder that corporate finance departments still struggle with assets that don't come with quarterly earnings reports.
Only firms with unique features can thrive today
Bailey stated there’s little reason to launch unless a Bitcoin Treasury company offers something genuinely distinctive. He remarked, “It’s kind of like, what’s the edge? Why are you needed? Anytime there is euphoria in the market, you see good companies come to bear, and you also see not great companies come to bear.” He added that the old strategy of copying existing Bitcoin treasuries no longer works.
He also cited a variety of ways to differentiate, ranging from expanding into under-appreciated international markets to focusing on particular asset types or adopting Michael Saylor’s credit-market approach, a variant that involves acquiring and consolidating income-producing companies.
But shares have been choppy for his firm. KindlyMD dropped by 55% to $1.22 on September 15 after Bailey warned that the stock could experience more volatility in the short term.
Standard Chartered had hinted at the possibility of consolidation in the industry
Bailey predicts that top-performing bitcoin treasury companies will soon move into “the next stage,” creating a “healthier environment” for the industry. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET shows public treasuries currently hold $113.8 billion.
In a September 15 warning, Standard Chartered said the collapse of several digital asset treasuries’ mNAVs has made smaller firms increasingly susceptible to financial strain. At the time, the bank explained that continued declines in mNAVs could trigger consolidation in the industry, as larger firms MOVE to acquire struggling rivals. It added that Strategy could extend its Bitcoin buying streak through such acquisitions.
Around the same time, the VC firm Breed also warned that only a minority of Bitcoin treasury companies will prove resilient, while those priced NEAR their market NAV may enter a “death spiral.” According to the firm’s analysts, companies demonstrating solid management, consistent execution, sharp marketing, and distinctive approaches that drive Bitcoin growth per share despite market volatility are the ones likely to command a market NAV (mNAV) premium.
Earlier this week, Metaplanet, a Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, saw its enterprise value fall below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, entering uncharted territory as one of the world’s largest public holders of the asset.
The company’s market-to-NAV (mNAV) ratio, which compares the company’s value to its Bitcoin holdings, dropped below one on Tuesday, reaching 0.99 for the first time on record, according to official data.
Data from TradingView shows that the metric has decreased by over seven points since mid-June, as the Metaplanet stock (3350) has lost 75% of its value, dropping from a high of $13 per share to $3.20 on Tuesday.
Metaplanet’s mNAV dropped below one after the firm stopped buying Bitcoin for the past two weeks, with its most recent BTC purchase announced at the end of September.
Different from traditional net asset value (NAV), mNAV is a ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin NAV, intended to help investors gauge how the market values the firm relative to its underlying BTC holdings, according to a mNAV page on BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s global research chief, also outlined several drivers behind the weaker DAT premiums — including investor anxiety about upcoming unlock events, shifting management focus, higher share issuance, profit-taking, and minimal differentiation among treasury strategies.
On July 4, James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, had stated that he suspects the lifespan of the Bitcoin treasury strategy will be significantly shorter than expected. “For many new entrants, it could already be over,” he noted.
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