India Demands U.S. Oil Swap: Iran & Venezuela Crude in Exchange for Russian Supply Cuts

New Delhi plays energy chess with Washington—offering to slash Russian imports if America facilitates access to sanctioned oil sources.

The Geopolitical Gambit

India's negotiators leverage their position as one of Russia's remaining energy clients. They want Washington to greenlight Iranian and Venezuelan crude imports before committing to reduce Moscow-sourced barrels. A classic 'your-sanctions-your-problem' maneuver that's got OPEC+ members quietly applauding.

Energy Realpolitik in Action

Refiners in Gujarat and Maharashtra already tested the waters with covert Venezuelan shipments last quarter. Now they're pushing for full-scale authorization—while Treasury officials sweat over inflation data. Because nothing says 'strategic partnership' like holding global oil markets hostage during an election year.

The IOU Economy

Washington faces the ultimate petrodollar paradox: punish Moscow while keeping emerging markets afloat. India knows the Fed's printing press can't magic up cheap crude—and they're charging interest on the diplomatic favor. Another day, another fiat currency discovering its limitations against hard commodities.

Trump pushes allies while India holds its ground

Donald Trump, now back in the Oval Office, isn’t just targeting India. He also told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to stop importing from Russia. “I’d like to have him stop buying any oil from Russia while Russia continues this rampage against Ukraine,” TRUMP said during a joint appearance at the White House.

Trump claimed Ukraine could still win the war if partners cut off Kremlin revenues. While Erdogan didn’t publicly commit to anything, he was reportedly offered access to F-35 fighter jets as part of the conversation.

Trump’s energy crackdown is part of a broader campaign to isolate Moscow economically. But India, which imports nearly 90% of its oil, says it’s not willing to walk away from affordable barrels unless the White House stops playing gatekeeper.

Iranian and Venezuelan oil, much like Russian crude, is often sold at discounted prices. In July, Indian refiners paid $68.90 per barrel for Russian supply. That was almost $9 cheaper than Saudi oil and $5 less than shipments from the U.S., Commerce Ministry figures show.

Right now, India is still the world’s top buyer of Russian oil delivered by sea. China leads overall, thanks to its access to pipeline deliveries. But the mix of politics, war, and sanctions has forced Indian refiners to make hard decisions.

They stopped importing from Iran in 2019, and Reliance Industries, India’s biggest private refiner, recently halted Venezuelan purchases after U.S. sanctions got tighter. Alternatives like Middle Eastern crude are still on the table, but those come with higher costs and longer delivery times.

OPEC+ underdelivers as market braces for more oil

Meanwhile, the oil market is facing a supply wave that isn’t quite hitting the mark. The OPEC+ group, which includes Russia, Iran and other producers, has only delivered around 75% of its pledged output hikes since April.

The plan was to raise production by 1.92 million barrels per day between April and August. In reality, the group came up 500,000 barrels short. That’s 0.5% of global demand that didn’t show up.

OPEC+ had previously cut production in layers. At the peak, the group had trimmed 5.85 million barrels per day. Eight members started reversing those cuts in April 2025, beginning with 2.2 million barrels per day, which they plan to phase out fully by the end of September.

Another round, 1.65 million barrels, is scheduled to wind down in October. The UAE also got a green light to bump its output by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September.

But even with all that, the group is still trailing behind. The delays in hitting output targets have helped keep prices from dropping too fast, despite predictions of a surplus heading into next year. For India, that means the crude market remains unpredictable.

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