Coinbase’s Q2 Earnings: Bulls, Bears, and Crypto’s Rollercoaster Ride
Wall Street can't decide if Coinbase is a diamond hands play or a sinking ship—and earnings won't help.
The Setup:
Analysts are split down the middle ahead of tomorrow's report. Bulls point to Bitcoin's 58% rally last quarter; bears scream about the SEC's lawsuit still hanging over the exchange like a guillotine.
The Real Metric:
Watch retail trading volumes. If mom-and-pop investors stayed sidelined despite the crypto rally, those 'cost-cutting' layoffs last quarter were just rearranging deck chairs.
The Cynic's Take:
Another 'mixed outlook' means hedge funds get to pump and dump the stock twice before lunch. How very Web3 of them.
Source: rwa.xyz
Despite Miller’s COIN upgrade, he still considers shares “significantly overvalued” as the market reacts to recent crypto price surges.
The Oppenheimer analysts see things a bit differently. They have a COIN price target (in the next 12-18 months) of $417.
Lau and Sidaarth note Coinbase’s US derivatives and International Exchange notional values were more resilient than spot trading volume — up 22% and 28%, respectively, quarter over quarter. That’s an area they’re more focused on after Coinbase’s Deribit acquisition.
Maybe Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong will give us a sense of other possible acquisition targets. As far as link-ups go, Coinbase on Wednesday revealed a partnership with JPMorgan Chase that lets Chase customers LINK their bank accounts to Coinbase wallets.
Lau told me he’ll be seeking expense guidance from Coinbase executives tomorrow, as well as any update on July trading revenue.
Coinbase is pretty connected in DC, and could also offer thoughts around when they expect the CLARITY Act to become law. That bill, which WOULD create a definition for “digital commodities,” got the House’s blessing on July 17.“Passage of the CLARITY Act will support Altcoin Summer, following the Stablecoin Summer after the passage of the GENIUS Act,” Lau explained.
Add it to the list of things we’re monitoring. Never a dull moment.
- The Breakdown: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
