Bitcoin’s Net Realized P/L Hits Zero Again — Is a June 2022-Style Capitulation Next?

Bitcoin's profit-and-loss metric flatlines—again. The market holds its breath.

The Zero Line Beckons

Net Realized Profit/Loss just kissed zero. That's the line where aggregate investor gains vanish into thin air. No paper profits left on the table. It's a psychological tripwire, a signal that the collective ledger has been wiped clean.

Echoes of Past Panic

This isn't the first dance at this particular crossroads. The last time this happened, back in June 2022, it wasn't a calm reset—it was a prelude to a fire sale. The memory of that capitulation, where fear overrode all logic, still hangs heavy in the crypto air. Traders are now scanning the charts for that same telltale tremor, the moment weak hands finally break and sell at any price. It's the market's version of waiting for the other shoe to drop—or in this case, for a whole closet of over-leveraged shoes to come crashing down.

The Bull Case in the Balance

Here's the twist: this reset can be a brutal but necessary cleanse. It flushes out the speculative froth and transfers assets from impatient traders to steadfast holders. It's the painful process that often lays the foundation for the next leg up. The big money watches these moments not with panic, but with calculated interest, ready to scoop up value when everyone else is too scared to look. After all, someone's capitulation is always someone else's bargain—just ask any hedge fund manager currently sipping a martini while their algorithms scan for distress signals.

So, is history about to repeat? The data suggests we're at a critical inflection point. The market's next move hinges on whether this zero line becomes a springboard or a trapdoor. One thing's certain: when the ledger hits zero, the real accounting—of both assets and nerve—begins.

Net Realized P/L tracks the balance between realized profits and losses on the Bitcoin network based on on-chain cost basis. Positive readings signal dominant profit-taking, while negative values reflect loss-driven selling.

Readings near zero suggest trades are occurring close to cost basis, indicating profit exhaustion and a balance between buyers and sellers.

Bitcoin Selling Pressure Fades, but Buyers Stay on the Sidelines

The analyst pointed out that the current setup resembles the period just before Bitcoin’s main capitulation leg in 2022. In late 2024 and early 2025, Net Realized P/L surged above $1.5 billion, reflecting an overheated profit-taking phase.

By January 26, 2026, that figure had collapsed to roughly $60 million, effectively flattening at the zero line. In 2022, a similar return to zero did not mark a bottom.

Instead, the metric continued lower into deeply negative territory, falling to around minus $350 million as the price slid another 50%.

Adler noted that the present zero reading should not be interpreted as a bullish reversal signal. Instead, it represents a pause where selling pressure from profit-takers has largely dried up, but fresh demand has not stepped in.

On-chain data suggests the market is currently being supported more by the absence of sellers than by strong buying interest, a fragile equilibrium that has historically broken lower during risk-off environments.

Despite the warning signals, large Bitcoin holders remain in profit, as realized price data segmented by balance size shows that all major whale cohorts are still comfortably above their average acquisition costs.

Holders with balances between 100 and 1,000 BTC have the highest realized price, near $69,900, giving them an estimated profit buffer of about 25% at current prices.

Other large cohorts, including wallets holding 10–100 BTC and those with more than 10,000 BTC, have average entry prices closer to $48,000 and $51,000, translating to unrealized gains of 70% to 80%.

This helps explain the lack of panic selling, even as price has pulled back sharply from recent highs.

Bitcoin Slips Below $88K as Volatility Picks Up

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $87,756, having fallen by approximately 1.1% in the last 24 hours and 5.7% in the last week.

Trading volume, however, surged more than 160% day over day to $53.1 billion, pointing to heightened activity as traders reposition amid volatility.

Macro pressure has contributed to the discomfort because U.S. President Donald TRUMP threatened to impose 100% tariffs on any Canadian products in case Ottawa strengthens trade relations with China, and the rumors of a potential American government shutdown resurfaced.

The move triggered more than $320 million in liquidations of Leveraged long positions in a matter of hours.

Also, CoinShares reported $1.73 billion in outflows from digital asset investment products last week.

Digital asset investment products saw sharp outflows last week, with investors pulling $1.73B — the largest weekly decline since mid-November 2025, according to CoinShares.#BTC #ETPs https://t.co/2ni4w83evG

Bitcoin-linked products accounted for $1.09 billion of those outflows, with the bulk coming from U.S.-based funds.

Exchange order book data shows sell-offs were absorbed with modest volume delta, indicating controlled selling.

Analysts say liquidity remains stable, with no signs yet of cascading capitulation.