Blockchain Adoption Accelerates Despite U.S. Regulatory Fog: Analysts See Unstoppable Momentum

Forget waiting for permission—blockchain's building anyway.

While Washington debates definitions and draws regulatory lines in the sand, global adoption isn't hitting pause. Major financial institutions and tech giants are quietly integrating distributed ledger tech, treating regulatory uncertainty as a manageable operational hurdle rather than a stop sign.

The Builders vs. The Bureaucrats

Analysts point to a clear divergence. On one side, you have legacy frameworks struggling to categorize a technology that defies old boxes. On the other, a wave of real-world use cases in supply chain logistics, cross-border settlements, and digital identity gathering steam. The narrative has shifted from 'if' to 'how and where.'

Global Momentum Creates Its Own Gravity

Pioneering jurisdictions with clearer rules are pulling development and capital. This creates a competitive pressure that even the most cautious regulators can't ignore indefinitely. Projects are voting with their feet, deploying capital and innovation where the path is paved, not potholed.

Institutional adoption now acts as a flywheel—each new enterprise application adds legitimacy and reduces perceived risk for the next. It's a classic network effect, and it's bypassing the traditional gatekeepers of finance.

The irony? The very uncertainty that was meant to protect traditional markets is fueling a decentralized alternative. Sometimes, the best way to create a parallel financial system is to have the old one tied up in committee hearings—a cynical truth any hedge fund manager would appreciate.

Concerns Over Stablecoin Competition

In comments cited by Clear Street, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong outlined several concerns with the draft legislation, most notably the risk that bank lobbying could limit the ability of crypto exchanges to pass stablecoin rewards through to users.

Clear Street views this outcome as increasingly likely outside of narrowly defined activity-based rewards such as payments, loyalty programs, wallets or staking.

Such restrictions, the firm argues, WOULD tilt the competitive landscape in favor of traditional banks by allowing them to retain interest spreads while reducing consumer benefits associated with stablecoins.

“In our view the bill risks shifting from its original goal of promoting crypto innovation toward protecting bank margins and constraining competition,” writes Lau.

Clear Street sees two possible paths forward: the crypto industry either accepts legislation with unfavorable terms or disengages from the process entirely. Either scenario could slow U.S. blockchain adoption and weaken the global competitiveness of U.S.-issued stablecoins.

Institutional Momentum Continues Without a Market Structure Bill

Despite these regulatory headwinds, Clear Street stressed that blockchain adoption has continued to advance even in the absence of a comprehensive U.S. market structure framework.

Major financial institutions including Vanguard, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase, the New York Stock Exchange and Bermuda-based entities have all expanded their engagement with blockchain-based products and infrastructure.

Growth areas highlighted by the firm include tokenized money market funds, tokenized equities and prediction markets. Clear Street added that while a supportive policy backdrop would likely accelerate adoption, institutional participation has proven resilient without favorable legislation.

Revised Outlooks for Crypto-Exposed Firms

Reflecting both regulatory uncertainty and evolving market conditions, Clear Street updates its forecasts and price targets for several crypto-linked companies.

For Bakkt (BLSH), the firm raised its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $37.8 million from $35.5 million, driven by stronger-than-expected transaction revenue.

Full-year 2026 and 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates were also modestly increased on continued strength in subscription and services revenue. However, Clear Street lowered its price target to $50 from $57 while maintaining a Buy rating.

For Coinbase, Clear Street reduced its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $630 million from $748 million citing weaker-than-expected December trading volumes. While consensus estimates of $731 million appear optimistic, the firm notes that the long-term blockchain adoption thesis remains intact.

Coinbase’s price target was cut to $344 from $415 to reflect lower earnings expectations and a compressed industry valuation multiple with the Buy rating unchanged.

Stablecoin Growth Still Intact

Clear Street also updated its outlook for Circle (CRCL), lowering its fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $112 million from $116 million due to a lower-than-expected average USDC market capitalization. The firm estimates that USDC’s ending market cap ROSE 72% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter during the period.

While near-term estimates were trimmed, Clear Street said longer-term adoption drivers remain intact, including prediction markets, tokenization, artificial intelligence applications and cross-border payments. Growth in non-core income streams could also provide upside, the firm added. Circle’s price target was reduced to $85 from $110 with a Hold rating maintained.

Outlook

Clear Street concludes that while regulatory delays and political compromise may weigh on sentiment in the NEAR term, blockchain adoption is increasingly being driven by institutional demand rather than legislative momentum alone.

“Institutional use cases continue to expand even without a favorable Clarity Act,” the firm said, adding that clearer policy would accelerate adoption — but its absence has not stopped it.