Bitcoin’s Wave V Looms: Analysts Warn More Downside Ahead
Grab your helmets. The charts are flashing red, and the crypto old guard is whispering about a fifth wave of pain. Forget the moon—right now, the conversation is about how low we can go.
The Elliott Wave Theory Strikes Again
Technical analysts are dusting off their Elliott Wave playbooks, pointing to a classic pattern playing out in real-time. The theory suggests market psychology moves in predictable waves—three steps forward, two steps back. We've supposedly ridden the bullish waves; now, the corrective phase is taking its pound of digital flesh. The dreaded 'Wave V' could be the final leg down, shaking out the last of the weak hands before any real recovery begins.
Sentiment Shifts from Greed to Fear
The mood in crypto circles has pivoted hard. Social media chatter is no longer dominated by price predictions with rocket emojis. Instead, it's a grim calculus of support levels and liquidation zones. This fear is a self-fulfilling prophecy, as retail traders hit sell buttons and institutional players wait on the sidelines—their risk models screaming caution. It's the classic cycle where pessimism begets more selling.
The Macro Squeeze Isn't Helping
Bitcoin isn't trading in a vacuum. Stubborn inflation and hawkish central banks have created a tide that's pulling all risk assets out to sea. High yields on boring government bonds suddenly look attractive compared to a volatile digital asset. Why ride a rollercoaster when you can get a steady, guaranteed return? It's a question more portfolio managers are asking—a cynical but pragmatic jab at finance's relentless chase for safety.
What Comes After the Fall?
History shows these brutal corrections are where lasting foundations are built. They purge excess leverage and unrealistic expectations. For long-term believers, this potential Wave V isn't an apocalypse—it's a clearance sale. The key is survival: managing risk, avoiding over-leverage, and remembering that in crypto, winter always precedes the next spring. The bottom might be near, or it might not. Either way, the market is reminding everyone it doesn't care about your feelings.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView
Wave V Incoming?
In a recent email, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at digital asset financial services company, argued that we are currently in Wave IV of the major bull run. We may potentially soon enter the fifth and final section of the bull’s track.
Therefore, the current wave’s competition target for BTC is between $71,000 and $84,000, he says. The breakdown of any corrective wave is an A-B-C structure, as seen in the chart below.
Now, the question is whether the yellow path is the full Wave IV or we will follow the purple path and see another MOVE lower to $71,000, Glover writes.
“From the breakerdown of wave C within this corrective pattern, it seems like another leg lower is likely,” he adds.
The confirmation of the path we’re following will come from either:
- a break and close above $104,000 (bottom of A), which would confirm that we followed the yellow path and are now starting Wave V,
- or a break below $80,000, which means a move to the low $70,000 before we head higher.
As a reminder, Wave IV is the fourth phase of a five-wave bullish impulse sequence. This is according to the popular price prediction model called Elliott Wave Theory.
Per this model, during the five phases of the positive trend, wave four goes down and corrects against the trend set by wave three. Then wave five takes over, goes up and reaches a new peak. After this, the three waves of the negative trend begin.
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Nic Puckrin, digital asset analyst and co-founder of the, highlighted that BTC has broken below a key support level of $94,000. This marked the January breakout trend line.
He added that the sell-off rides on the back of tariff news and geopolitics. These are coming out of the US in particular.
“From here, it’s likely we’ll see further downside unless buyers step in, with strong support around $88,000. So far, a small rebound has taken BTC back above $93,000, but it’s nothing to write home about.“
No better way to start the week than a tariff induced crypto crash.
US markets closed today so investors are expressing their macro positions through BTC.
If we fall below $90k before market open tomorrow, ETF holders may also start dumping. pic.twitter.com/6I1758isOC
In the US, the markets closed today for a federal holiday, and volatility persists. The possibility of a deeper sell-off depends on whether BTC closes the day below $90,000, Puckrin writes. This could see exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders exiting positions when the US market opens on Tuesday.
Finally, as altcoins bleed, the analyst says, precious metals are surging. “Unfortunately, investors holding out for a rotation from metals to altcoins will be sorely disappointed, as the uncertainty and fears around Greenland are likely to get worse before they get better,” Puckrin concludes.
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Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at global multi-asset broker, said that Bitcoin’s latest downtrend is the result of a mix of profit-taking and a “risk-off” pivot, Hasn writes. This follows a renewed spike in US political risk, as well as geopolitical and trade tensions. These risk-off factors are preventing a notable BTC recovery.
These factors include a criminal investigation into theChair Jerome Powell, as well as the stalled confirmation process of the bank’s new head. These have “effectively paralyzed the central bank’s leadership transition.”
The loss of Fed autonomy “could very well sow the seeds for the demise of dollar dominance, a scenario that WOULD permanently redefine the global financial hierarchy,” he says, citing Ray Attrill of.
This affects the crypto market sentiment, as “uncertainty regarding the Fed’s autonomy typically triggers a flight from dollar-denominated assets,” Hasn argues.
“For the crypto markets, this ‘politicized dollar’ narrative serves as a long-term bull case, even if current prices are dipping. If investors lose faith in U.S. government debt and the Fed’s autonomy, decentralized assets like Bitcoin and ‘hard’ assets like gold, which has already seen skyrocketing prices, become the logical hedge against institutional decay.”
Meanwhile, there are also global geopolitical tensions to take into account. These are primarily between the US and China, as well as the US and Europe. The latter is currently focused on Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland.
Trump's Europe tariff threats erase $875 million in crypto positions as Bitcoin falls 3% to $92,000 amid geopolitical market shock.#Trump #Europe #Tariffs #Bitcoinhttps://t.co/heRs8hxlkV
Moreover, the upcoming days are bringing fresh US PCE inflation data and the World Economic Forum in Davos. Solid inflation figures could definitively “put the lid” on hopes for a near-term rate cut, forcing a repricing of bonds and equities alike.
Finally, the“surprise hawkishness” or an intervention to save the yen could “trigger a massive liquidity squeeze, sending tremors through Western markets already on edge.”
Hasn concludes that, “ultimately, we see a shift from ‘market fundamentals’ to ‘geopolitical theater’ as the primary driver of price action.”
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