BTC Recalibrates After Fed Cut as AI Correlation Deepens, Says Nansen

Bitcoin's price action just got a new co-pilot—and it's not who you'd expect.

The AI Takeover (of Charts)

Forget traditional market correlations. Nansen's latest analysis reveals a deepening, almost eerie synchronicity between Bitcoin's movements and major AI sector indices. When Big Tech's silicon brains twitch, crypto's digital gold now flinches in tandem. It's a relationship that bypasses old-school finance logic entirely.

Post-Fed Recalibration

The recent rate cut sent shockwaves—but not the kind Wall Street predicted. Instead of a straightforward rally, Bitcoin entered a complex recalibration phase. The asset is now processing monetary policy through a new lens, one filtered by algorithmic sentiment and machine-driven liquidity patterns. The old rules? They're being rewritten in real-time.

The New Market Drivers

Active verbs define this shift. AI doesn't 'influence'—it pulls. Liquidity doesn't 'flow'—it surges and retreats based on signals most humans can't parse. This creates a market that cuts out the middleman—often the fund manager staring at six Bloomberg terminals—and connects capital directly to computational momentum.

So, while traditional finance scrambles to justify its fees, Bitcoin and AI continue their silent dance. The correlation deepens, the recalibration continues, and the market's next move might just be drafted by code. After all, why pay a hedge fund for gut instinct when an algorithm's gut is made of pure logic?

AI Stocks Drive BTC’s Latest Pullback

Bitcoin’s post-FOMC dip occurred alongside sharp moves in large U.S. AI names following Oracle’s earnings release. Barthere notes that while the AI sector continues to post strong earnings and capex growth, valuations have climbed to levels that are increasingly difficult to justify as 2026 approaches.

She added that BTC has shown rising correlation with AI-themed equities—a relationship she expects to persist. “I expect that relationship to continue until we see a more meaningful sell-off that fully ‘cleans’ valuations in the sector,” she said. As long as AI stocks react sharply to earnings surprises or guidance revisions, BTC is likely to echo those swings.

Key Resistance at $91K as Positioning Stays Stretched

From a technical and market-structure perspective, Barthere emphasized $91,000 as the dominant resistance level for BTC. Sustained trading above that mark for several weeks WOULD be needed to confirm a renewed uptrend.

However, the derivatives markets are showing stretched positioning with open interest in both futures and options at record highs. Elevated leverage increases the risk of abrupt moves if sentiment shifts or liquidity thins.

Heading into year-end, traders are holding considerable downside protection. Options imply a 48% probability that BTC reclaims $91,000, and futures funding rates remain only mildly positive, suggesting Leveraged longs are not aggressively dominating.

2026 Outlook: Bullish Options, Risk of Disappointment

Looking further ahead, Nansen notes that options markets are structurally bullish for 2026, reflecting expectations for improved liquidity, macro stability, and continued institutional inflows.

However, Barthere cautioned that such positioning could prove vulnerable if economic data or earnings trends fail to meet optimistic assumptions. With markets recalibrating, traders will be watching how liquidity dynamics evolve and whether BTC can break cleanly above resistance to regain upward momentum.

In September, Nansen announced the launch of Nansen AI, a mobile agent designed to transform how investors and traders interact with blockchain data.

Nansen launches @Nansen_AI a mobile agent bringing onchain data, portfolio insights & soon trading—AI-driven markets. #Crypto #AIhttps://t.co/IEk2JBvVUV