Bitcoin ’Liveliness’ Indicator Surges: Bull Cycle May Still Have Legs
Bitcoin's so-called 'liveliness' metric just flashed a signal that's got bulls leaning forward in their seats. Forget the doom-and-gloom headlines—this on-chain gauge suggests the party isn't over yet.
What 'Liveliness' Actually Measures
Think of it as the crypto market's pulse check. The liveliness indicator tracks the ratio of coin days destroyed to the total coin days ever created. In plain English? It measures whether long-term holders are waking up and moving their stash. A rising line often signals HODLers are starting to take profits—historically a mid-to-late bull market behavior, not a final curtain call.
Why This Time Might Be Different
Market veterans are watching the slope, not just the spike. The current uptick mirrors patterns from past cycles where momentum paused, shook out weak hands, and then resumed its climb. It's the market's way of taking a breath, not collapsing. The data implies accumulation is still happening beneath the surface—just ask any trader whose screen is a sea of green wallets, a classic sign of strategic buying during dips.
The Contrarian Take
Sure, some desk jockeys in pressed suits will call this hopium. They've been waiting for a 'correction' to justify their cautious spreadsheets since Bitcoin was a fraction of its current price. Meanwhile, the network keeps processing transactions, miners keep securing blocks, and the indicator keeps ticking up. Sometimes the most sophisticated analysis in finance boils down to a simple question: are coins moving to stronger hands or fleeing in panic? The liveliness metric suggests the former.
Don't mistake a market catching its breath for one running out of air. The data on the chain tells a story of persistence, not peril. As one cynical fund manager might grumble over his cold coffee—'The charts only go up until they don't.' But for now, the key metric for the world's first cryptocurrency is very much alive.
Bitcoin’s Rising “Liveliness” Metric Points to Renewed Bull-Market Demand
The metric, described as an “elegant” long-term gauge of chain activity, measures the ratio of coins being transacted relative to those being held, weighted by their age.
It increases when older coins are spent more frequently, and falls when long-term holders accumulate.
“Liveliness usually rises in bull runs as supply changes hands at higher prices, indicating a FLOW of newly invested capital,” TXMC explained, noting that the latest upward trend contradicts the muted price action seen in recent weeks.
Glassnode data shows liveliness pushing into a new peak range, breaking out of the corridor it remained stuck in from the 2017 all-time-high through earlier cycles.
Analyst James Check said the current spike in liveliness reflects an unprecedented reactivation of dormant Bitcoin supply, surpassing patterns seen during the 2017 bull run, the first cycle characterized by “widespread participation” and a dramatic parabolic surge.
Liveliness has been range bound since the 2017 peak, up until now.
The 2017 Bull was special in that it was the first epic parabola with widespread participation, but was also when many old coins transacted to capture the BCH dividend.
New Liveliness ATHs shows how extreme the… https://t.co/aoVFr2jOsR
This time, however, the scale is far larger. While 2017 typically saw transfers measured in the thousands of dollars, Check noted that today’s on-chain value flows often reach into the billions, signaling one of the largest capital rotations Bitcoin has experienced.
“We have seen an extraordinary volume of coin days destroyed,” Check said. “I am of the view we have just watched one of the greatest capital rotations and changing of the guard in Bitcoin history.”
BTC Price Stalls, Analysts Eye Breakout Levels
Bitcoin’s price action remains subdued despite the on-chain strength. BTC briefly dipped below $89,000 early Sunday before recovering to around $89,500, largely unchanged over 24 hours.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the market is stuck in a consolidation band: “Anything between $86,000 and $92,000 is pretty much noise.”
Anything between $86-92K is pretty much noise. Not much will happen for $BTC.
If $92K gets tested, I think we'll break it, but if not, brace yourself for a test at the low $80K range for some sort of double-bottom pattern.
Again, I don't think we're far off bottoming for… pic.twitter.com/6acTFBAZk4
He added that a test of $92,000 could lead to a breakout, while failure could push BTC toward the low $80,000s for a potential double-bottom formation.
“I don’t think we’re far off bottoming for Bitcoin,” van de Poppe said, predicting a stronger rally heading into late Q4 and early Q1.
Last week, Bitfinex said the market is showing “seller exhaustion” following a period of heavy deleveraging and panic-driven exits by short-term holders.
“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” the firm wrote.
