BTC’s Rally Isn’t Over Yet: CIOs See More Upside Despite ’Directionless Volatility’ Ahead
Bitcoin's bull run still has legs—even with choppy waters ahead. That's the call from top investment chiefs who argue the current cycle hasn't peaked.
The Volatility Paradox
Markets hate uncertainty, but crypto thrives on it. The predicted 'directionless volatility' isn't a death knell; it's the messy middle of a larger story. Think of it as the market taking a breather before the next leg up—a classic pattern where weak hands get shaken out and conviction gets tested.
Cycle Theory vs. Short-Term Noise
Every pullback sparks the same tired debate: Is this the top? Seasoned players look past the daily charts. Macro adoption drivers—institutional pipelines, regulatory maturation—haven't suddenly vanished. The underlying infrastructure build-out continues, quietly, regardless of price swings that give traditional finance analysts heartburn.
The Institutional Endgame
This isn't 2017. The entry of real capital—pension funds, corporate treasuries—changes the game. Their timelines are longer, their tolerance for volatility is hedged, and their exit strategies don't involve panicked sell orders at 3 a.m. They're playing a different game, one that views dips as entry points, not disasters.
A cynical take? Wall Street loves a narrative it can sell, and 'cautious optimism' is the perfect product—it lets them collect fees during the turbulence while positioning for the rally. The real signal will be when the suits stop talking about volatility and start bragging about their allocations.
So, is the BTC cycle over? The smart money says not even close. Buckle up for a bumpy ride to the next peak.
‘Directionless Volatility’ Over Coming Months
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of financial services company, recently discussed the market’s current position.
He argued that we’re currently in a Wave IV correction, which typically completes at either the 23.6% fibbo (Fibonacci retracement) or the 38.2% fibbo.
“If this is true in the current situation,” he writes in an email, “we have already finished Wave IV and we should now resume the uptrend.”
JG's weekly #BTC TA:
1/5
"The price action this week hasn’t clarified which path we’re following. My favoured count remains the orange line below (Wave III has completed and I now look for a correction towards the ~$70 to $80k level)… "
more from @john_w_glover
pic.twitter.com/jCq2MV9M68
However, Glover notes the so-called Rule of Alternation. If Wave II is a very simple A-B-C correction, which it was in this case, Wave IV tends to be more complex. “What we’ve seen thus far in this correction has been rapid and quite simple in its formation,” he says.
However, he also argued that it is still possible that we’re experiencing a wave 5 (of Wave III) extension.
This is relevant, as it WOULD take the price to $125,000 before we see a correction.
3/5
"In either event, we remain in the bull cycle and we will ultimately see prices well above $100k in the 2025. The Green count target is ~$160k while the Orange count target is ~$125K."
Moreover, unless BTC breaches the March 2024 high of $74,000, “there’s no real threat of a drastic sell off,” Glover writes. “So I expect the market to continue adding to longs on any dips.”
All this said, “my view is that we will see a lot of ‘directionless volatility’ over the coming months, with the low being set somewhere between $71,000 and $80,000.”
The good news is that “once that base has fully formed, the rally will continue into the end of 2026/beginning of 2027 with a target of $145,000 to $160,000 depending on where the bottom of Wave IV finalizes,” the exec concludes.
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Fabian Dori, CIO at digital asset bank, argued that the capitulation is being driven by sentiment shocks, and not macro or structural fundamentals.
There are three key elements that have had a notable impact over the fourth quarter of 2025:
However, according to Dori, “despite battered sentiment and heightened volatility, both macro and crypto-specific drivers continue to point to powerful tailwinds.”
This suggests that the recent correction is “excessive rather than structural.”
Fabian Dori, Sygnum Chief Investment Officer, on stage at this year's Finanz und Wirtschaft Forum in Zurich.
“Q4 has delivered a painful correction and sentiment reset – but the medium-term drivers of this cycle (macro momentum, liquidity, on-chain fundamentals and regulation)… pic.twitter.com/n8y5nA7HqS
Moreover, Dori argues that the cycle is not ending yet.
“The shift in narrative was triggered less by fundamentals and more by a sudden re-pricing of risks at a time when investors were already debating whether the Four-Year Cycle had peaked,” he said.
Dori concluded that “these signals reflect sentiment capitulation rather than long-term deterioration in fundamentals. From a cycle perspective, we see a maturing phase rather than an ending one.”
Therefore, while Q4 has seen “a painful correction and sentiment reset,” the medium-term drivers of this cycle are intact. These include macro momentum, liquidity, onchain fundamentals, and regulation.
“The current environment is uncomfortable in the short term,” Dori says, “but historically it has offered attractive entry points for investors with a mid-to long-term horizon, rather than cycle endings.”
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