Bitcoin’s Crossroads: 30% Chance of Peaking Now or Extending Bull Run to Late 2025?
Bitcoin traders face a brutal dilemma—take profits now or gamble on history rewriting itself.
The 30% Top Probability Camp: Short-term bears see warning lights flashing. With BTC hovering near all-time highs, statistical models suggest a 1-in-3 chance we're already at cycle peak. 'This isn't FUD, it's math,' argues one quant trader. 'Every prior cycle saw corrections of 30%+ after hitting these RSI levels.'
The Lengthening Cycle Thesis: Crypto's permabulls counter with macro tailwinds. Spot ETF inflows keep accelerating, institutional adoption hits new records weekly, and—let's be honest—the Fed's rate cuts have Wall Street dumping cash into anything with volatility. '2025 isn't just possible, it's inevitable,' claims a Goldman Sachs alum turned crypto VC. 'The dumb money hasn't even arrived yet.'
Who's right? Depends who you ask—and more importantly, whose bags you're holding. Either way, hedge funds are quietly loading up on volatility derivatives. Because nothing makes tradfi suits happier than charging 2-and-20 to bet against both sides.
Brandt: 30% chance the top is already in
Brandt warned there’s a 30% probability Bitcoin has already peaked in this bull cycle. If so, he expects a retracement toward $60,000–$70,000 by late 2026, before the next parabolic advance could catapult prices to $500,000. His view emphasizes caution, suggesting investors may be underestimating how early a market top can form.
I think there is a 30% chance that BTC has topped for this bull market cycle. Next stop then back to $60k to $70k by Nov 2026, then next bull thrust to $500k https://t.co/xPujqCjp9e
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 15, 2025
Colin: Cycles are lengthening, next peak due Dec 2025
In contrast, Colin Talks Crypto points to a pattern of lengthening cycles—each extending by roughly four months compared to the last. His chart shows:
- Cycle 1: 24 months
- Cycle 2: 28 months
- Cycle 3: 33 months
- Current cycle: potentially 37 months
Using this model, the next bitcoin top would arrive in December 2025, three years after the November 2022 bottom. This aligns with his earlier October 2025 projection, reinforcing the idea of one more strong push higher before the market peaks.
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What it means for traders
Both views highlight the theme of diminishing returns but differ on timing. Brandt suggests caution, warning that a premature peak may already be behind us. Colin’s model argues the final rally is still ahead, giving bulls over a year to push higher.
The tension between these scenarios reflects the uncertainty of crypto cycles. Whether Bitcoin has already topped or still has 12–15 months left of upside momentum could define the strategies traders adopt for the next two years.
