Bitcoin: 92% of Holders Raking in Profits as Warning Signals Intensify

Bitcoin's relentless surge pushes nearly all holders into profitable territory—but seasoned investors spot trouble brewing beneath the surface.

Profit Party or Precarious Peak?

With 92% of Bitcoin addresses now sitting on gains, the euphoria feels almost tangible. Markets hit unprecedented highs while retail FOMO kicks into overdrive. Yet that very success breeds vulnerability—classic market psychology where extreme optimism often precedes painful corrections.

Warning Flashes in the Blockchain

On-chain metrics whisper caution even as prices scream triumph. Exchange inflows spike, whale movements grow erratic, and leverage ratios stretch into dangerous territory. Smart money starts positioning defensively while newcomers chase the rally—a familiar pattern that rarely ends well for the latecomers.

Traditional finance skeptics watch with smug satisfaction, muttering about 'digital tulips' while quietly increasing their crypto exposure—because nothing beats hedging with the asset you love to hate.

In brief

• 92% of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, a historic threshold reflecting strong market momentum.
• Such a profitability level has often preceded prolonged bullish phases but also sudden corrections due to massive profit-taking.
• Liquidity flows on exchanges reflect growing uncertainty, with a positive netflow of $39.13M signaling potential selling pressure.
• The market remains undecided, split between optimism fueled by gains and growing tension linked to weakening structural indicators.

A bitcoin market largely in profit… for now

While many analysts wonder where bitcoin will stop, the percentage of the supply currently in profit has risen to 92% according to CryptoQuant data.

In other words, 92% of the circulating supply is held at a price lower than the current market price, placing a significant majority of investors in a profitable position.

This threshold is a historic reference. When reached in the past, it has often preceded extensions of bullish rallies. However, this setup is not without risk, as it also coincides with peaks of euphoria followed by massive profit-taking phases.

To better understand what this 92% profitability rate concretely means, here are some indicators:

• Many winning investors: the vast majority of current holders are in the green, reflecting broadly bullish market dynamics;

• A historical precedent of prolonged bull runs: this profitability level has been observed in previous bull market cycles, where the market continued to rise after surpassing 90%;

• An increased risk of selling: when too many investors are in profit, the risk of profit-taking mechanically increases;

• Directional uncertainty: the market could turn either way depending on psychological arbitrages between greed and caution.

Technical signals that crack bullish confidence

Behind this exceptional profitability, some structural indicators reveal a worrying slowdown. The Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM), which measures bitcoin’s valuation relative to its network activity, has dropped by 4.54%.

This decline suggests that the BTC price could move out of sync with the network fundamentals. Historically, such divergences have often preceded periods of stagnation or even pullbacks. This NVM decrease therefore indicates some disconnect between market euphoria and the reality of protocol usage.

Additionally, there is the sharp 42.86% drop in the Stock-to-Flow Ratio, a popular model intended to assess bitcoin scarcity by crossing circulating supply with issuance rate. Although criticized for years, mainly for its rigidity, this model still carries symbolic weight in crypto analysis.

Meanwhile, net inflows into exchanges reach +$39.13 million, reflecting potential selling pressure. At this point, the market seems stuck between conflicting signals, without a clear direction.

These technical elements, taken individually, are not enough to announce a sharp reversal. However, their convergence could reveal a weakening of bitcoin’s bullish momentum. The combination of a falling NVM, a weakened Stock-to-Flow, and strained liquidity shows that the current rally’s strength rests on a fragile foundation.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.