Could Bitcoin Enter A Bear Market This October? Here’s What You Need to Know

Bitcoin faces its ultimate October test as market watchers brace for potential turbulence. The cryptocurrency's notorious volatility meets seasonal patterns that have historically shaken even the most hardened traders.

Seasonal Shifts Ahead

October traditionally brings heightened volatility to digital assets. While past performance never guarantees future results, the month has delivered some of Bitcoin's most dramatic price swings throughout its history.

Market Mechanics at Play

Institutional adoption continues growing while retail sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. The underlying blockchain technology keeps advancing regardless of short-term price action—something traditional finance still struggles to comprehend while counting their paper profits.

Regulatory Winds Shift

Global regulators increasingly focus on cryptocurrency frameworks. Their typically slow-moving bureaucratic processes somehow always accelerate during market downturns—almost as if they enjoy kicking assets while they're down.

The Verdict: Prepare, Don't Panic

Whether October brings bears or bulls, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain stronger than ever. The network continues operating flawlessly, adoption keeps growing, and the technology keeps improving. Maybe traditional finance should worry more about their own outdated systems instead of Bitcoin's price movements.

In Brief

• A new analysis predicts Bitcoin entering a bear market as early as October.
• Joao Wedson’s fractal model announces a possible crash to $50,000 in October 2026.
• The analyst does not rule out one last bullish peak around $140,000 before a sharp reversal.
• The validity of the four-year cycle is contested in the face of ETFs and institutional flows.

A Cycle That Could Soon Shift

While the rush of institutional investors on bitcoin is in full swing, Joao Wedson, CEO of the analysis platform Alphractal, points out that the asset could be at the dawn of a major trend reversal. Relying on his model called “Repetition Fractal Cycle”, he suggests that the crypto queen could enter a bear market as early as next October, if the logic of historical four-year cycles holds true.

“Bitcoin might have barely a month left before the end of this cycle”, he stated in a post on the social network X, while admitting that such reasoning WOULD be “reckless if based solely on this chart”.

The analyst does not rule out one last bullish MOVE before the reversal : “I can’t help but think this could be just enough time for BTC to drop to the 100,000-dollar zone before jumping beyond 140,000 dollars over the same period. Who would dare doubt such a scenario ?”.

Judgment Day for Bitcoin Approaches?

Back in 2024, we pointed out that October 2025 could mark the completion of a fascinating Bitcoin fractal cycle. If true, this would signal the official closing of this phase in BTC’s history.

Of course, it would be reckless to assume that… https://t.co/3dtekdPCFN pic.twitter.com/ZtndPv0vCm

From this perspective, Wedson suggests that the market bottom could occur in October 2026, around 50,000 dollars. His reasoning is based on patterns observed in previous cycles. Here are the main data highlighted in his analysis :

• The anticipated end of the bull cycle in October 2025, marking the start of a new bear phase ;
• The lowest point projected around $50,000 for October 2026, consistent with the usual duration of a cycle ;
• A possible surge to $140,000 in the very short term, preceding a collapse, a scenario described as volatile but plausible by Wedson.

In the short term, technical signals seem to confirm a turning point for bitcoin. Since the correction started in mid-August, the crypto has unsuccessfully tried to break through a persistent downward trendline.

This technical threshold could act as a trigger. Either it breaks, and a new bullish momentum begins, or it holds, potentially confirming the hypothesis of an imminent end of the cycle.

A Cycle Questioned by the Market’s New Dynamics

Beyond fractal projections, several concrete factors now call into question the validity of the historical four-year cycle. Joao Wedson himself nuances his analysis : “the real question is whether this fractal will remain reliable in the face of intense speculation around ETFs and the growing demand from institutional investors”.

Bitcoin’s entry into the sphere of major financial players and its positioning as a major macroeconomic asset introduce unprecedented distortions in its price dynamics. The speculative pressure on Bitcoin spot ETFs, combined with increased sensitivity to traditional market trends, could RENDER certain once reliable market patterns obsolete.

Additionally, contradictory technical signals exist. While the price tries to break a descending resistance, the dominance of USDT (USDT.D) plays a central role in short-term expectations.

According to another trader active on X, known under the pseudonym Killa, “this chart will decide if BTC falls below $100,000 or reaches new all-time highs”. The market seems suspended at this symbolic threshold of 100,000 dollars.

This 1 chart decides if $BTC breaks below $100K or breaks to new ATH. pic.twitter.com/eP0mb027p6

If the support holds, the bullish momentum could resume. Otherwise, some analysts believe the bull run would be officially over. The clash between these two scenarios is playing out amid strong macroeconomic uncertainty, with the specter of a global bear market on risky assets in the United States.

If this fractal model were to be confirmed, October would mark the beginning of a new long consolidation phase, likely to severely impact the market. Conversely, if institutional support as evidenced by Strategy’s acquisitions and widespread adoption continue to grow, bitcoin could well break free from this cyclical straitjacket and write a new chapter in its financial history.

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