Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment: 3 Critical Factors You Can’t Ignore in 2025
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture—again. Here's what could send it soaring or leave it stranded.
1. Institutional Whales: Feeding Frenzy or Flight?
Wall Street's latest playground toy faces its next stress test. Will spot ETF inflows hit escape velocity, or will the suits get spooked by volatility (again)?
2. The Halving Hangover
Sixteen months post-halving, miners are sweating. Hash rate fluctuations could trigger a domino effect—liquidation cascades included.
3. Regulatory Roulette
Global watchdogs still can't decide if crypto is the future or a felony. The next G20 meeting might just flip the table.
One thing's certain: Traders will overreact either way—because nothing fuels markets like panic dressed as conviction.
In Brief
- Bitcoin flirts with $110,000, but a false breakout towards $105,000 remains a credible scenario.
- Technical signals are bullish, supported by a very favorable macro context according to Ryan Lee.
- Despite the enthusiasm, the market shows signs of overheating with a risk of an upcoming short squeeze.
Bitcoin : The shadow of a false breakout at $105,000
After a new weekly record at $109,240, Bitcoin having surpassed $2 trillion in valuation seems to be charging toward the peaks. Yet, beneath this apparent calm, a trap could well be closing in around $105,000.
This level is no accident: it concentrates a zone of high liquidity and coincides with the 50-day exponential moving average. For trader CrypNuevo, the scenario is clear:
The main liquidation level is at $105.2k. A false breakout towards this area, in confluence with the 1D50EMA, WOULD be a good entry point.”
Market makers love this kind of movement: trapping overconfident bulls, liquidating margin buyers… then abruptly reversing the trend. At this stage of the cycle, caution is a competitive advantage.
Historic close and favorable macro tailwind
The breaking of the final weekly resistance places bitcoin in price discovery territory. Technical signals are clear: buyers are in control. But it’s not just a matter of charts.
Macroeconomics gives a boost to the bullish momentum. Record highs in US stocks, the weakening dollar, and aggressive fiscal policies all work in favor of risky assets. And bitcoin benefits fully.
This is highlighted by Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research:
The rise of Bitcoin, reaching around $109,000, just shy of its all-time high of $112,000, is supported by strong favorable macroeconomic winds. Record performances of US stocks, a significant increase in money supply, and expansive fiscal policy, notably through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, are the main drivers.
In short: the environment is almost too perfect. And that is precisely where the risk lies.
Funding rates, liquidity, sentiment: watch out for overheating
The derivatives market sends a contradictory message. While the Bitcoin price climbs, funding rates on Binance decline, reflecting growing skepticism. More and more traders are betting on an imminent reversal.
This misalignment opens the door to a possible short squeeze. In other words: short sellers risk being crushed if the price breaks above $110,000 with force. Such a MOVE can temporarily propel BTC far beyond expectations.
But the Fear & Greed Index sounds the alarm: investors are in a state of great greed. Exuberance rises, clarity fades. A typical short-term top configuration.
Bitcoin may be $2,000 away from a new all-time high. But in such a setup, the most spectacular rallies often come after a final shakeout. The $105,000 level could be that brutal, brief, and salutary shakeout.
For those looking for a strategic entry point, it’s better not to chase the price. For others, it’s time to lock in profits. Arthur Hayes expects a drop to $90,000 before a 10x rally.
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