Crypto Traders Brace for Impact as $3.7B Options Expiry Looms

Markets hold their breath ahead of today's high-stakes expiry—Wall Street's favorite casino game just got a blockchain makeover.

Why it matters: When this much notional value hits the tape, even Bitcoin maxis check their leverage. Liquidity hunters circle as gamma exposure threatens to amplify moves.

The cynical take: Another day, another nine-figure wealth transfer from overconfident degens to market makers. At least the blockchain receipts are immutable.

In Brief

• Nearly $3.7 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, an expiry that could cause strong market tremors.
• Calls largely dominate open positions, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.7 for BTC and 0.63 for ETH, signaling a superficially bullish sentiment.
• Critical levels are identified: $105,000 for Bitcoin and $2,575 for Ethereum, against current prices significantly below.
• Today’s expiration marks a turning point, revealing the growing gap between short-term expectations and the bullish outlook for the fourth quarter.

A Market Dominated by Call Options

After the expiration of $8.05 billion in BTC and ETH options on April 25, 2025, nearly $4 billion in options expire this Friday.

Indeed, 30,750 Bitcoin options contracts expire on Deribit, representing a total notional value of $3.1 billion. Added to this are 240,054 Ethereum contracts, worth $588 million.

These volumes, although lower than last week’s, remain significant for the market. Indeed, the Put/Call ratios, 0.7 for BTC and 0.63 for ETH, suggest a bullish orientation.

However, current market prices contradict this optimistic reading. At the start of the day, Bitcoin was trading at $102,769 and Ethereum at $2,456, both below their respective pain thresholds.

The BTC options expiring today in the crypto market have a maximum pain point at $105,000. It is the same scenario for ETH, with a maximum pain point set at $2,575.

These critical levels are the focus of all attention because they define the zones where the overall losses of the options are maximized. Here are some elements to better understand the dynamics at play:

• For bitcoin: 30,750 contracts expire today. Their notional value is $3.1 billion. The Put/Call ratio is 0.7. The maximum pain point is at $105,000. The bitcoin price is currently at $103,984.

• For Ethereum: 240,054 contracts expire. The notional value is $588 million. The Put/Call ratio is 0.63. The maximum pain point is $2,575. The Ethereum price is currently $2,173.

This gap between contract positioning and price reality exposes both sides, options buyers and sellers, to cross losses. In this configuration, prices can be mechanically drawn toward the pain levels at expiration.

This mechanism, well known by options traders, fuels a risk of sudden volatility. As Deribit analysts summed up in a cryptic but meaningful phrase: “call options dominate across the entire curve. What will happen after expiration?”.

Short-Term Fears and Massive Long-Term Bets

Despite this apparent imbalance between bullish sentiment and actual prices, crypto market players remain largely cautious in the short term. According to Greeks.live analysts, “the majority of participants remain bearish and anticipate a further correction,” especially in the $105,000 – $109,000 zone, seen as a major technical resistance.

In this context, a defensive strategy has largely taken hold. The sale of short-term call options, particularly around $108,000 for June 7, is likely. This approach indicates a strong conviction that bitcoin will not break through this key zone in the short term and reflects a tense crypto market, constrained by abnormally low volatility.

However, behind this immediate caution lies a radically different medium-term vision.

According to Greeks.live, the largest operation ever recorded on Bitcoin options, valued at $1.19 billion, or 11,350 BTC, was structured in two phases.

First, it is a bullish spread strategy with a September expiry, betting on price appreciation and increased volatility. Second, it is the sale of call options NEAR the current price for the July expiry, reflecting no anticipation of an immediate rebound.

“Traders are envisioning BTC at $150,000 by the fourth quarter,” explains Greeks.live, suggesting that the real movement could occur after a calmer summer.

These divergent signals reflect the deep uncertainty in the crypto market, as evidenced by the correction due to profit-taking. Today’s massive expiry might have no immediate effect if prices stagnate. However, it mainly represents a strategic tipping point. Institutional investors and professional traders are playing the waiting game, adjusting their positions, and awaiting a clearer catalyst to reposition. Long-term Optimism seems firmly anchored in the order books.

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