Bitcoin Bull Run Dead or Just Taking a Breather? Traders Divided as FUD Spreads

BTC’s 30% pullback from its 2025 ATH has crypto Twitter screaming ’bear market’—while institutional money keeps stacking sats under the radar.

Whales vs. weak hands: The usual suspects (CNBC, goldbugs) are spinning the dip as proof crypto was always a scam. Meanwhile, derivatives data shows hedge funds quietly loading up on cheap leverage.

Wake us when the Fed cuts rates again—until then, enjoy the volatility buffet. Just remember: Wall Street always buys the rumor and sells the news... after dumping their bags on retail.

In Brief

• Bitcoin is nearing $105,000, but this spectacular rise strongly divides analysts.
• Several bearish indicators are identified: divergences, low volumes, overbought as per Stoch RSI.
• Some analysts are betting on a correction towards $90,000 despite the apparent strength of the rebound.
• Other, more optimistic voices highlight that the market might simply consolidate within a well-defined range.

Critical Technical Signals: The Thesis of a Bull Run Exhaustion

On May 19th, Bitcoin recorded a 2.5% rebound, rising above $104,000 after a significant 4% drop at the Wall Street opening. However, this short-term bullish movement does not dispel the growing doubts in the market.

For some technical analysts, bitcoin shows worrying signs of weakness. Trader Roman warns in a post on the X platform on May 19, 2025:

This is not a good close: we rejected resistance, created more bearish divergences, and had a rise with low volume. The Stoch RSI is also at its peak.

His analysis fits into a cautious, even pessimistic, perspective on the short-term market evolution.

Several technical elements reinforce this bearish reading:

• Bearish divergences visible on momentum indicators, indicating weakening momentum despite price increases;
• Decreasing volume during the rebound, suggesting a lack of buyer conviction;
• The RSI, an on-chain metric, is in the overbought zone, which historically often preceded market corrections;
• Rejection of the weekly resistance, considered a classic technical signal of potential reversal.

Roman concludes bluntly: “Too many bearish signs to ignore, which is why I keep repeating that the bull run is probably almost over.”

This thesis is shared by other traders who suggest a possible price return to the $90,000 area in the coming days, diverging from the prevailing Optimism since the start of the year.

Critical Levels and Waiting Strategies: Optimists Bet on Consolidation

Contrary to alarmist readings, several voices point out that the market might simply be going through a consolidation phase, in an intact structure. Trader Daan crypto Trades identifies two essential technical levels: “$102,000 and $106,000”.

According to him, these boundaries represent the low and high of the range in which the price has been moving for one to two weeks. “Watch for a clear break above or below these levels. So far, the price hasn’t held a position beyond these for more than a day,” he explains on the social network X on May 19.

This observation highlights a certain short-term market neutrality, awaiting a strong directional signal.

Another point of vigilance concerns the $106,600 level, where a significant supply cluster has formed. Approximately 31,000 BTC were acquired at this price on December 16th, and holders have neither sold nor reinforced their positions since. For Rekt Capital, the $104,400 level is strategic. It is the threshold that bitcoin must hold as support to pass a bullish breakout test.

Despite apparent volatility, the market might be pausing before a potential new high. Accumulation below resistance, absence of redistribution in key areas, and relative stability in recent sessions argue for a scenario where the bull run is far from over.

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