Ethereum Primed for Comeback? Key Technical Signals to Watch on May 14, 2025
ETH bulls are licking their wounds—but the charts hint at a potential turnaround. Here’s what traders are betting on.
The Breakdown: Ethereum’s price action shows a classic bull flag forming near the $3,800 support level. RSI dipped into oversold territory for the first time since March, while funding rates flipped negative. Textbook reversal setup or another ‘buy the dip’ trap?
Macro Whiplash: Fed Chair Powell’s ‘higher for longer’ speech tanked risk assets yesterday—except ETH, which barely budged. Either institutional money is quietly accumulating, or retail bagholders are too numb to sell. (Wall Street’s algo-traders, meanwhile, are busy shorting both sides.)
Make-or-Break Levels: A clean break above $4,200 confirms the uptrend resumes. Failure to hold $3,600? Cue the ‘crypto winter’ doomsayers—and the inevitable ‘Ethereum is dead’ hot takes from finance bros who missed the 2024 rally.
In Brief
- Technical analysis: ETH accelerating strongly: driven by a weekly rise of +38.5% and soaring volumes (+154%), ETH shows solid bullish momentum across all timeframes, despite moderate sell-offs on spot ETFs.
- Key levels: ETH remains bullish above $2,105, supported by critical levels at $2,407, $1,723, and $1,471, but approaches a dense resistance zone between $2,740 and $3,746, with a market balance framed between $1,630 at the bottom and $3,325 at the top.
- Derivatives analysis: Market signals remain bullish, with rising open interest, seller absorption, and short liquidations, but the increasing funding calls for caution if momentum continues.
- Forecasts: The bias stays bullish above $2,407, with a potential of +30%, but a breakdown could expose the market to a correction of up to -45%, depending on upcoming macroeconomic factors.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Spot Price | $2,625 | Strong bullish extension after breaking key levels. |
| Recent Weekly Changes | +38.5% | The price marked its largest weekly increase of the year, signaling bullish acceleration. |
| Recent Weekly Volumes | 31.3 B (+154%) | Volume surge, consistent with the strength of the bullish move. |
| Long-term Trend (SMA 200) | Bullish | Progressive rise in the long-term trend. |
| Mid-term Trend (SMA 50) | Bullish | Bullish structure established in the mid-term. |
| Short-term Trend (SMA 20) | Bullish | Sustained rise, no immediate weakness signs. |
| Momentum | Rising | Momentum confirms its increase, with oscillators accelerating sharply. |
| Spot ETH ETF Flows (net flows) | Moderate sell-offs | ETFs show moderate sell-offs, signaling a measured retreat of institutional buying interest. |
ETH shows a strong recovery with a spot price of $2,625, driven by a weekly increase of +38.5%, the largest of the year. This rise is accompanied by soaring volumes (+154%), reflecting a marked resurgence in participation. Trends are now bullish across all timeframes (SMA 20, 50, and 200), indicating well-rooted structural momentum. Momentum remains strong, with oscillators clearly accelerating, confirming the solidity of the movement. The only notable reservation: moderate sell-offs on spot ETH ETFs, signaling a measured pullback in institutional buying interest.
Key Ethereum Levels
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Resistance | $2,740 / $2,924 / $3,527 – $3,746 | Critical zones, potential distribution thresholds. |
| Support | $2,407 / $1,723 / $1,471 | Major defense levels, probable accumulation zones. |
| Last Daily Breakout | $2,105 | Resistance breached; bullish bias confirmation. |
| Monthly Pivot Point | $1,711 | Reference level for the trend of the month below the price. |
| High Value Area | $3,325 | High volume zone; upper bound of a market balance, beyond which imbalance may emerge. |
| Low Value Area | $1,630 | High volume zone; lower limit of a market balance, beyond which imbalance may emerge. |
Ethereum remains in a confirmed bullish momentum following the recent daily breakout at $2,105, with well-identified support levels at $2,407, $1,723, and $1,471, which could serve as accumulation zones in case of a pullback. The monthly pivot point at $1,711 provides a reliable trend reference, always located below the market. Approaching key resistances between $2,740 and $3,746, the price nears thresholds likely to trigger profit-taking or a slowdown. Two distinct value areas frame the cryptocurrency: one below $1,630, supporting the idea of a solid buying base, and one above $3,325, marking a possible ceiling to the progression, beyond which imbalance could appear.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elyfe, and 0xhugzer, investors and educators in the cryptocurrency market.
Derivatives Analysis (ETH/USDT)
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Open interest | Increasing | Speculative activity growing, indicating renewed interest. |
| CVD | Seller absorption | Divergence showing presence of sellers, absorbed by passive buyers. |
| Liquidation | Strong, on shorts | Significant short-side liquidations, a sign of seller capitulation. |
| Funding rate | Slightly positive | Moderately high funding rate, signaling a bullish bias without marked speculative excess. |
Market data indicates a generally favorable environment for buyers, although without excessive euphoria. The rise in open interest reflects renewed speculative activity, while the CVD highlights seller absorption, a sign of discreet but active market support. The wave of short liquidations suggests seller capitulation, mechanically reinforcing bullish momentum. The funding rate, positive and rising, reflects a growing buyer bias; this is an evolution to watch, as excess leverage could weaken the momentum in case of sudden market declines.
| Indicator | Status | Comment |
| Seller liquidation zone | ≈ $2,850 – $3,050 / $3,424 – $3,790 / $4,124 – $4,250 | Sensitive zones in case of breakout, risk of bullish amplification. |
| Buyer liquidation zone | ≈ $2,416 – $2,370 / $1,906 – $1,865 / $1,835 – $1,605 / $1,537 – $1,500 | Critical thresholds on the downside, potential flush zones. |
The market identifies several seller liquidation zones located between $2,850 and $3,050, $3,424 and $3,790, as well as $4,124 and $4,250. These levels constitute sensitive zones in case of breakout, potentially leading to bullish amplification if crossed with volume.
Conversely, buyer liquidation zones are more numerous and extensive, covering the ranges from $2,416 to $2,370, $1,906 to $1,865, $1,835 to $1,605, and $1,537 to $1,500. These thresholds represent critical zones on the downside, where the market is exposed to significant flush risks in case of rapid correction.
Forecast for the Ethereum (ETH) Price
Bullish scenario:
- Conditions: Maintaining above $2,407.
- Targets: $2,739 / $2,925 / $3,527 and beyond.
- Potential: +30% from current level.
Bearish scenario:
- Conditions: Break below support at $2,407.
- Targets: $2,110 / $1,723 / $1,471.
- Potential: Drop up to -45%.
Comment:
The bias remains bullish, although a short-term correction cannot be ruled out. Upcoming macroeconomic indicators, as well as Jerome Powell’s speeches, could play a key role in validating or invalidating this scenario.
BTCUSDT chart by TradingViewConclusion
Ethereum is evolving in a clearly bullish environment, supported by strong participation and solid technical momentum. The market structure remains favorable, with well-established support zones and resistances to watch in the short term. Derivative market data confirms renewed buyer interest, without notable excess. The bias remains positive, although a technical pullback cannot be excluded in case of temporary pressure. In this context, closely monitoring price reactions at strategic levels will be essential to confirm or adjust current forecasts.
Finally, remember that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and that cryptocurrency prices can evolve quickly according to other more fundamental factors.
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