Fed Decision Looms: Bitcoin Bulls and Dollar Hawks Clash in High-Stakes Repositioning
Markets brace for impact as the Federal Reserve’s next move sends shockwaves through crypto and traditional finance.
Bitcoin vs. fiat: The trillion-dollar game of chicken
Traders are flipping positions like short-order cooks—loading up on BTC as a hedge against potential Fed dovishness, while dollar loyalists double down on ’safety.’ Meanwhile, Wall Street quietly adjusts its algo parameters and sips champagne.
One thing’s certain: someone’s about to be painfully wrong. (Spoiler: It’s probably the guy still trading based on the 1970s playbook.)
In Brief
- Bitcoin surpasses $95,000, benefiting from a market attentive to Jerome Powell’s tone.
- The Fed injected $20.5 billion via SOMA, triggering a rush to rare assets.
- The dollar weakens, gold climbs, cryptocurrencies become credible havens against inflation.
Bitcoin Defies FOMC Expectations
Despite an, the Bitcoin price is trading. Thiswas not reached by chance. It reflects a well-established momentum, strengthened by market expectations. The consensus is betting on, but the market is mainly watching Jerome Powell’s tone. The slightest shift towards a more dovish speech could unleash a new bullish momentum.
In March, awas enough to propel BTC beyond $87,000. Today, even without a cut, the signals are there. According to King Baldwin:
A dovish tone could bring Bitcoin back towards 100,000 dollars.
Thereinforces this thesis.This retreat reflects revised but not erased expectations. Caution dominates, but speculation is organizing.
When the Fed Injects Without Admitting It
Behind the apparent calm, the Fed acts. On May 5, it. Thislooks very much like disguised quantitative easing. The analyst @MDBitcoin does not mince words:
This is not a market. This is not a buyer. It is an automatic monetary backstop.
The dollar weakens,. Bitcoin then becomes. Macro signals converge towards an unstable situation: persistent inflation, massive debt, and incoherent monetary policy.
Jim Paulsen reminds us:
Every time the Fed Funds rate exceeds the neutral rate, a recession looms.
The American economy staggers, and traditional Treasury buyers retreat.. This mechanism creates a loop: money creation, revival of rare assets, return of inflation. Bitcoin, by its nature, frees itself from this loop. Its rarity and independence place it in contrast to the dollar. As long as this mechanism persists, buyers will continue to seein it.
Technical and Macro Data: The Numbers Speak
Market data supports this momentum. The majority of technical and fundamental signals point to. The dollar index (DXY) fell below 100 for the first time since July 2023., NEAR its all-time high. Real rates remain high, but the 3.7% yield on US bonds no longer finds buyers.
SOMA becomes the buyer of last resort. Institutional investors retreat to rare assets.
Here are the key data to remember:
- BTC trades around $95,000 with short-term potential at $100,000;
- DXY below 100: structural weakening of the dollar;
- 76% chance of rate ≤ 4% by September;
- Gold +12% over 30 days, near record level;
- 60% probability of recession (Kalshi source).
In this context, bitcoin stands out as an escape. It is seen as a, a refuge against monetary dilution, and a tool for individual protection. This positioning has been built up through crises and now seems internalized by a large part of the market.
Currently, 88% of bitcoin holders are in a winning position. Only purchases made above $95,000 show a loss. This strengthens the idea that the market is structurally bullish. The economic environment continues to favor rare assets. The Fed hesitates, bitcoin advances.
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