Are OG Strategies Actually Stifling Bitcoin’s Momentum in 2025?

Bitcoin's price action feels stuck—like a supercar idling in traffic. The culprit? Veteran traders clinging to playbooks written for a different market.

The Ghost of Cycles Past

Everyone's waiting for the halving pump, the ETF approval surge, the predictable post-correction rally. But what if the market's memory is too good? When every 'smart money' move gets front-run by algorithms and retail copycats, the old catalysts lose their spark. The playbook becomes the problem.

Liquidity vs. Dogma

Maximalist 'HODL' rhetoric preached diamond hands, but it also encouraged parking capital indefinitely. That's great for long-term scarcity, terrible for short-term price discovery. New capital needs churn—entry and exit ramps—not a vault. Meanwhile, institutional flows through ETFs created a new, more passive form of accumulation that bypasses the volatile, momentum-fueled trading of years past.

The Innovation Paradox

Here's the ironic twist: Bitcoin's success as digital gold might be sand in the gears of its growth engine. The very strategies that built its fortress—accumulation, cold storage, cyclical trading based on historical patterns—could be damping the wild volatility that once attracted speculative frenzy. It's becoming a stable asset, which is what the OGs wanted, just without the explosive 10x runs that made headlines (and millionaires).

The market's maturing, sure. But sometimes maturity looks a lot like stagnation—especially to fund managers whose bonuses still depend on beating the market, not just matching the S&P 500's returns with extra steps.

In Brief

• Bitcoin remains stuck around $90,000, despite growing investor interest via ETFs.
• An analyst points to a discreet strategy used by some historic holders: selling covered call options.
• This practice generates invisible selling pressure on the market, slowing BTC price progress.
• Meanwhile, BTC is decoupling from stock markets, despite strong institutional demand via ETFs like IBIT.

Invisible but Real Selling Pressure

According to market analyst Jeff Park, some of the oldest Bitcoin holders, nicknamed the “OGs”, contribute to slowing the progression of the BTC price by adopting a well-known strategy in the derivatives world: selling covered call options.

This technique allows them to generate passive income by selling call options on their bitcoin holdings, which they have held for more than ten years. “When you already have the Bitcoin inventory you’ve held for over ten years and you sell call options on it, only the sale of these adds delta to the market, and this direction is negative,” Jeff Park states.

Here are the main elements of this mechanism that acts as a brake on the crypto price:

• The “OGs” sell call options on BTC they already hold, which allows them to pocket an immediate premium without parting with their tokens, unless the price exceeds the strike ;

• Liquidity providers who buy these options must hedge by selling spot Bitcoin to limit their exposure ;

• These spot sales create artificial downward pressure on the price, even with strong buying demand ;

• The Bitcoin used for these strategies is not from recent purchases, meaning it does not represent any new capital injection into the market ;

• Covered call options become a source of negative delta, according to Park, meaning the entire market experiences a structural selling influence.

This phenomenon, subtle for non-initiates, partly explains why Bitcoin struggles to take off despite growing enthusiasm from institutional investors. In short, OGs optimize their short-term gains at the expense of medium-term bullish momentum.

Increasing Decoupling and Tensions with Traditional Flows

While tech stocks continue to break historical records, Bitcoin seems to have decoupled from this momentum.

Since the second half of the year, analysts have observed a clear decoupling between BTC and stock markets, an unusual phenomenon given that the two moved in tandem in previous cycles.

In this context, BTC’s inaction is surprising, especially given the strong investment flows via ETFs. Despite strong demand on BlackRock’s IBIT, prices remain contained. This anomaly is all the more striking as volatility curves observed on ETFs now differ significantly from those on crypto derivatives platforms like Deribit.

Several hypotheses emerge to explain this inertia. Some analysts remain optimistic. They believe that the Fed’s ongoing rate cut cycle could inject a new wave of liquidity favorable to risky assets, which Bitcoin WOULD fully benefit from.

According to CME Group data (FedWatch tool), 24.4% of traders anticipate another rate cut as early as January 2026. However, other voices are more cautious, even skeptical. For these experts, the bull run may already be behind us, and a drop back to 76,000 dollars is not excluded.

Bitcoin collapses after false hope of rebound, revealing the limits of a pressured market. Despite Optimism sparked by incoming flows, some actors’ defensive strategies continue to neutralize bullish momentum. The expected recovery will now have to contend with more structural resistances.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.