Whales Hold Their Breath for Powell: Why Bitcoin Faces a Critical Test Tonight

The crypto market is on pause. All eyes are locked on the Federal Reserve, with major players—the so-called 'whales'—parked in cash, waiting for Jerome Powell's next move. The stage is set for a volatile night.

The Powell Effect

It's a familiar dance. When the Fed chair speaks, global markets flinch. Bitcoin, despite its decentralized ethos, hasn't cracked the code to immunity from central bank gravity. Tonight's commentary on interest rates and inflation will dictate the short-term momentum. A hawkish tilt could send traditional and digital assets tumbling in unison—a sobering reminder that in times of stress, correlations tend to converge, much to the dismay of 'uncorrelated asset' marketing decks.

Whale Watching in Shallow Waters

The lack of major buy-side volume tells the real story. Large holders aren't accumulating; they're spectating. This creates a liquidity vacuum where even modest sell pressure can trigger outsized price swings. The order books look thin, setting up a potential liquidity grab if sentiment sours post-announcement.

A Test of Resilience

Tonight isn't just about a speech. It's a stress test for Bitcoin's latest narrative: digital gold in an era of fiscal uncertainty. A sharp drop would fuel the critics; a resilient hold or bounce would embolden the bulls. The outcome will likely be framed as a profound macro revelation, ignoring the simpler truth that traders often front-run the news and sell the fact.

So, grab your charts and your popcorn. The Fed's theater of macroeconomic management is about to deliver another episode, and the crypto market—for all its talk of disruption—still takes its cues from a building in Washington. Sometimes, the most revolutionary technology still waits for an old man with a podium to decide its fate for the day.

In brief

• Bitcoin briefly exceeded 94,000 dollars before falling below 92,500 dollars.
• The FOMC meeting could decide its near future, between euphoria or panic.
• Several analysts denounce a movement orchestrated by whales to trap small investors.
• The market remains suspended more on Powell’s tone than on the actual decision on rates.

The FED Speaks, Cryptos Listen: Why the Economy Holds Its Breath

The verdict of the FOMC meeting is awaited like a turning point. Markets anticipate a 0.25% decrease, but that is not what scares or excites: it’s the tone. Indeed, if Jerome Powell remains cautious about future rates or quantitative easing, investors could abruptly change course. Bitcoin, in particular, could plunge or soar.

Michaël van de Poppe sums up the stakes:

Jerome Powell appears and takes a restrictive tone, stating: “I don’t know if we will proceed with rate cuts,” and the whole market reacts with a classic sell-off-the-news correction.

With inflation still unclear, notably due to the lack of recent CPI data, the FED is navigating blindly. This increases uncertainty in the markets, which react more and more violently to perceived signals, even slight ones.

In this context, bitcoin becomes a thermometer for the global economy, more than just a speculative asset. And when the thermometer heats up, it is often the entire crypto market that follows. Solana, Ethereum, and even less liquid tokens all react to the same macro triggers.

Whales, FOMO, and Manipulations: How Long Will the Crypto Euphoria Last?

BTC’s peak at 94,625 dollars did not last. Some analysts denounce a price manipulation orchestrated by whales. On X, trader “NoLimit” comments:

That sudden bitcoin spike to $94k doesn’t look organic at all. People are celebrating, but if you zoom out for even 10 seconds, the move has all the fingerprints of a classic engineered pump.

This sudden surge quickly created a FOMO effect on social media, as shown by Santiment’s analysis. The company indicates that calls for “higher” exploded just after the rise — a classic before reversals.

The other worrying element is that bitcoin remains strongly negatively correlated with stocks. When the latter fall, BTC plunges even more deeply. Hence the fear of a post-FOMC “sell the news,” if announcements do not meet expectations.

Bitcoin at the Crossroads of Scenarios: Crash to 78K or Soar to 100K?

Two paths seem to emerge. In the first, Powell remains vague or worried: bitcoin drops back toward 78,000 – 82,000 dollars, taking altcoins and rally hopes down with it. In the second, he clearly mentions resuming balance sheet expansion or liquidity support: BTC crosses 100,000 dollars in 2025.

Ethereum, for its part, could benefit from BTC’s lag to widen the gap. Other cryptos, like Avalanche or Solana, could follow depending on the size of the next move.

Key Points to Remember: Figures and Key Signals

• Bitcoin price: 92,330 $ at the time of writing;
• Critical zone: 78,000 – 82,000 $ in case of post-FOMC pullback;
• Major technical target: 100,000 $ if a recovery signal appears;
• 88.6% probability for a 25 basis points cut according to CME;
• Persistent inverse correlation between BTC and stock indices.

While the FED shakes the markets, another player enters the dance: the Bank of Japan surprised with the announcement of a rate hike. In a broadly restrictive context, the question remains: what if bitcoin ultimately resists better than expected?

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