Bitcoin Plunges Below $84K as Record Outflows Hit - But NFCI Hints at Major December Rally Ahead

Bitcoin gets hammered as institutional money flees at record pace

The Great Unwind

Digital gold just lost its shine - temporarily. Bitcoin craters below the $84,000 psychological barrier amid the largest outflow wave ever recorded. Institutions are dumping positions like hot potatoes while retail investors watch in horror.

December's Secret Weapon

Buried in the chaos: NFCI indicators are flashing green. The same metrics that predicted last year's 40% surge are now signaling a potential December explosion. Smart money's already positioning for the bounce.

Wall Street's Favorite Game

They sell the panic, buy the dip, then profit from both sides. Classic hedge fund maneuver - create fear, then capitalize on the recovery they engineered. Meanwhile, true believers are loading their bags at discount prices.

The crypto rollercoaster continues its wild ride - because what's finance without a little manufactured drama?

In brief

• Bitcoin dropped to $80,000 on Friday, its lowest level in months, and struggled to recover toward $84,000.
• Crypto funds recorded $2 billion in outflows last week, with Bitcoin leading at $1.4 billion and Ethereum at $689 million.
• Analyst Miad Kasravi noted that the National Financial Conditions Index points to improving liquidity and could signal a major Bitcoin move in early to mid-December.

Record Outflows and Market Pressure Intensify for Bitcoin

Fresh figures released by The Kobeissi Letter on November 21 highlighted the scale of the current downturn. The newsletter reported that Bitcoin’s drop on Friday triggered over $1.5 billion in Leveraged liquidations within four hours, showing how quickly forced selling intensified.

In a separate post, the newsletter noted that investors have been withdrawing funds from crypto products at an unusually fast pace. Last week, outflows from crypto funds reached $2.0 billion, the largest since February, and after three consecutive weeks of redemptions, total withdrawals over this period added up to $3.2 billion.

Bitcoin led the outflows with $1.4 billion, followed by ethereum at $689 million, recording some of their biggest weekly losses this year. Coupled with declining prices, total assets under management in crypto funds have fallen 27% from their October peak to $191 billion, a decline considered structural rather than temporary.

US exchange-traded funds added to the pressure as spot Bitcoin ETFs faced another down week, with outflows hitting $1.22 billion for the third consecutive week.

Historical Signals and Liquidity Trends

While a number of market observers have been looking for signs of a bitcoin bottom in chart patterns and on-chain data, analyst Miad Kasravi evaluated the outlook from a broader macro angle. Kasravi conducted a 10-year backtest covering 105 financial indicators, noting that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is one of the limited signals that consistently offers a four-to six-week lead on Bitcoin’s next move.

Kasravi pointed to past examples to illustrate the pattern, showing how changes in financial conditions often preceded major Bitcoin rallies

• In October 2022, the NFCI began easing, signaling looser financial conditions while Bitcoin remained near $16,000
• During this period, institutional investors quietly accumulated Bitcoin while most traders held back, and by January 2023, the price had climbed from $16,000 to $31,000, an increase of 94% over six months
• A similar scenario occurred in mid-2024 when the NFCI peaked in tightness in July, Bitcoin bottomed around $53,000, and strong buying in late August pushed the price above $107,000 for a 98% rally

At present, Kasravi observed the NFCI at -0.52 and declining, with the index likely moving toward -0.60, a level that historically corresponds to 15–20% gains in Bitcoin for every 0.10 drop.

Liquidity Shifts and Bitcoin’s Near-Term Outlook

The analyst pointed to an upcoming Federal Reserve policy shift in December, where the central bank will MOVE its mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills. While this action is not officially called quantitative easing, it functions similarly by adding liquidity to the banking system, reminiscent of the 2019 “not-QE” operation that was followed by a 40% Bitcoin rally over three months.

So, what does this mean for Bitcoin if the NFCI continues to fall into mid-December? A further decline could mark the beginning of a new phase of rising liquidity. Looking at the index’s historical four- to six-week lead on major shifts, this pattern points to Bitcoin’s next significant cyclical move in early to mid-December 2025, offering traders a reference point linked to the broader financial environment.

When this type of NFCI-driven trend emerges, Bitcoin has historically outperformed altcoins by around 20–30% at the start of the move. This typically occurs because large investors direct their initial allocations toward the most liquid and established asset before rotating into smaller tokens.

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.