Brace for Impact: Friday’s Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry May Unleash Market Chaos
Crypto traders, buckle up—today’s options expiry could send shockwaves through the market. With billions in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts set to settle, volatility is primed to spike. Here’s why.
The Powder Keg
Open interest for BTC and ETH options hits record highs as traders position for a make-or-break Friday. No one’s hedging—just pure, unadulterated speculation.
Liquidity Games
Market makers are either licking their chops or sweating bullets. Tight spreads and gamma exposure could turn minor price moves into cascading liquidations. Thanks, leverage.
Bankers’ Bonus Round?
Watch for the usual suspects—Wall Street’s crypto desks—to ‘manage’ price action toward max pain. Because nothing screams ‘decentralization’ like centralized players rigging the game.
Bottom line: Pack a parachute. This expiry won’t be for the faint of heart—or the over-leveraged degenerate.
The second quarter of 2025 has been kind to Bitcoin. Since April 1, the market leader has climbed, buoyed by a 14.2 % gain in April, an 11.1 % jump in May, and a further 2.6 % rise so far in June. The rally carried price from $104,544 at the start of the month to about $107,370 today, briefly tagging new cycle highs NEAR $107 K.
| Period | Price Change |
| April 2025 | +14.2 % |
| May 2025 | +11.1 % |
| June-to-date | +2.6 % |
| Q2-to-date | +30.2 % |
Crypto Market Today
Friday’s $15 B Options Expiry
According to Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Pequignot, one of the year’s biggest expiries hits the tape this Friday. Roughly $15.2 B in BTC options 38 % of the entire $40 B open interest, will settle at once.
The “max-pain” level, where the highest number of contracts expire worthless, sits at. Prices often drift toward this magnet because market makers who sell options profit most if Bitcoin lands there at expiry.
Sentiment and Volatility Tell a Mixed Story
Options data still leans cautiously bullish:
- Put/Call ratio: 0.73, meaning there are 73 puts for every 100 calls—more calls signal an upside tilt.
- Implied volatility: down sharply from 50 % to 38 %, suggesting traders expect smaller price swings in the near term.
Yet those expectations can change quickly when billions in contracts roll off.
Technical traders are laser-focused on. It has acted as first-line support throughout June:
- Hold above $105 K: Bulls retain control; a post-expiry relief rally toward $110 K or higher stays on the table.
- Break below $105 K: Sentiment could flip in a hurry, with price gravitating toward the $102 K max-pain zone and triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s 30 % quarter has impressed even hardened bulls, but the real test comes with Friday’s mega-expiry. Stay alert, whether BTC defends $105 K or succumbs to max-pain gravity will likely set the tone for the rest of the summer.
