XRP Price Outlook for May 1: Bulls Eye Breakout as Ripple Battles SEC Overhang
XRP traders brace for volatility as the crypto faces a make-or-break technical test—just as Ripple’s legal saga enters its next act.
Key levels to watch: A clean break above $0.55 could trigger algorithmic buying, while failure here may see a retest of the 200-day moving average. Market makers currently show thin liquidity around these levels—classic setup for a liquidity hunt.
The SEC lawsuit remains the elephant in the room, though traders seem to be pricing in a delayed resolution (because when has regulatory clarity ever arrived on schedule?). On-chain data reveals whales accumulating at current prices, while retail traders remain net sellers—a contrarian signal that’s either prescient or painfully early.
Meanwhile, the ’crypto for banks’ narrative gets its quarterly dust-off from Ripple’s marketing team. Because nothing says decentralization like courting the very institutions blockchain was meant to disrupt.
XRP remains within a familiar range on the higher time frame, trading just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level—a technical area often associated with wave 4 corrections in Elliott Wave theory. At the time of writing, XRP is down by more than 2% and is trading at $2.20.
Wave Structure and Support Levels
The ongoing pullback is interpreted as part of a larger wave 4 correction. From this zone, a further upward move is possible, with chances for XRP to form another higher high. However, a deeper retracement cannot be excluded. In the event of another leg down, support between $1.22 and $1.34 would become the next area to watch.
The $1.21 level remains pivotal. A break below this point would significantly weaken the bullish case, suggesting a shift toward a more bearish outlook.
Bullish Prospects and Price Targets
As long as XRP holds above the current upper support levels, the potential for an upward breakout remains on the table. Possible targets in this scenario include $5.00, $5.65, and even $6.60. While speculative discussions have pointed to the possibility of XRP reaching $10 or more, such projections are considered low-probability outliers without clear structural support at this stage. Any extended fifth wave would be unusual and would require strong confirmation.
Short-Term Outlook
XRP has undergone a retracement, with the current price structure appearing unclear and choppy. The recent move up may represent the beginning of a diagonal pattern, following a possible wave 4 low in April.
A minor B-wave correction around April 20 was shallow and may not provide enough structure to confirm the next leg upward. Currently, the price has recovered to approximately $2.16, after briefly dipping below weaker Fibonacci-based support. The more important level to monitor in the short term is $2.12. As long as this level holds, the chances remain for a continuation of the bullish pattern. A break below $2.12 could lead to a reset of the current wave count and signal a larger flat correction.
