Analyst Reveals: Could XRP Price Ever Fall Back to $1? The Uncomfortable Question

Will XRP ever see a single dollar again? That's the multi-billion dollar question rattling through crypto circles.

The Ghost of Prices Past

Forget the moon-shot predictions for a second. A growing chorus of analysts is peering into the rearview mirror, asking if a retreat to that psychological $1 level is still on the table. It's a sobering counter-narrative to the relentless hype cycle.

Forces at Play: The Push and Pull

Regulatory clarity could be the ultimate catalyst—or the final nail. Meanwhile, adoption by major financial institutions acts as a potential rocket booster, while broader market sentiment remains the ever-present wildcard. It's a classic tug-of-war between fundamental utility and speculative froth.

The Bottom Line: A Reality Check

Never say never in crypto—a market where 'impossible' is just Tuesday. The path back to $1 would require a perfect storm of negative triggers, but dismissing the possibility outright is the kind of hubris that empties wallets. After all, in traditional finance, they call it 'mean reversion.' In crypto, they call it a buying opportunity… right before the panic sell.

XRP price has struggled to MOVE higher even as XRP exchange traded funds continue to see strong interest. This has confused many investors, especially with growing headlines around institutional demand and ETF inflows.

On Paul Barron Podcast, analyst Zach Rector said the lack of price movement is frustrating but not surprising. According to him, the market is going through a “sell-the-news” phase that often follows major ETF launches.

Why ETF Inflows Have Not Boosted XRP Price Yet

Rector explained that ETF demand has not directly pushed XRP’s public market price higher because most ETF purchases are happening over the counter, not on public exchanges.

“In November, about $803 million flowed into XRP ETFs,” Rector said. “At the same time, around $808 million worth of XRP was sold on centralized exchanges.”

Because XRP’s market price is set on public exchanges, selling pressure there has canceled out the ETF demand happening privately.

Exchange Outflows Offset ETF Buying

Rector said nearly $808 million left centralized exchanges in November as investors sold XRP for dollars or stablecoins. This selling pressure kept prices down even as ETF interest increased.

“When ETF inflows move onto exchanges, that’s when things change,” he said. “That’s when buying becomes aggressive.”

Market Cap Data Shows Strong Upside Potential

Rector pointed to past market data to explain why XRP can still move quickly when sentiment turns positive.

In November 2024, XRP’s market cap expanded by nearly $100 billion in one month due to strong inflows. In contrast, November 2025 saw a $41 billion drop in market cap due to exchange outflows.

“This shows how fast XRP can move when buyers step in,” Rector said.

Analyst Says $1 XRP Is Highly Unlikely

When asked directly whether XRP could ever fall back to $1, Rector was clear.

“Not a chance,” he said. “It WOULD take a massive black swan event.”

He added that the market now has DEEP liquidity, strong passive buying, and many long-term holders waiting to buy on dips.

Strong Buying Interest Below $2

Rector said large buy orders are already stacked NEAR current support levels.

“I have a buy order at $1.91,” he said. “If we break $1.90, we could retest $1.80, but below that is very hard.”

He pointed out that XRP has been setting higher lows all year, with key levels around $1.60 in April, $1.77 in October, and $1.81 in November.