Fed Rate Cut Decision Looms: Top Crypto Market Movers to Watch This Week
Markets hold their breath. The Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates isn't just a number—it's a potential rocket booster for digital assets. Liquidity is the name of the game, and a dovish pivot could send capital flooding into risk-on corners of finance, crypto included.
Beyond the Fed: The Altcoin Pulse
While Bitcoin often sets the tone, the real action frequently brews elsewhere. Keep an eye on major Layer 1 protocols and DeFi blue-chips. Their price action and on-chain metrics—think transaction volume and active addresses—often signal where smart money is rotating before the headlines catch up. A surge in stablecoin inflows to these ecosystems is a classic tell.
The Regulatory Shadowbox
Never forget the other side of the equation. While traders obsess over macro, regulatory bodies haven't gone quiet. Any unexpected statement or enforcement action—even if it's just the usual theater of proposing to regulate the unregulatable—can trigger outsized volatility. It's the market's favorite paradox: begging for legitimacy while fearing its consequences.
Positioning for the Pivot
This isn't about predicting the Fed's exact words. It's about positioning for the momentum shift they may unleash. Watch for breaking correlations between crypto and traditional indices. A decoupling, where digital assets start outperforming on mere hints of easier money, would confirm the narrative shift. The old financial playbook is being rewritten, one blockchain at a time—assuming the suits in charge don't try to ban the pen first.
Crypto traders are walking into a very important macro week of the year. A fresh batch of labor data, a new OPEC report, and a high-stakes Fed meeting are all set to land within days and each one could influence how much liquidity flows into Bitcoin and the broader market.
With expectations leaning toward another rate cut, this is a week where every data point matters.
JOLTS Kicks Off the Action
Tuesday’s JOLTS report sets the tone for the week.
According to the August 2025 JOLTS report, the U.S. labor market had 7.227 million open job positions.
For crypto, a softer reading supports the “soft-landing” story and opens the door for more easing. Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq sits around 0.80, so signs of a cooling labor market can translate directly into risk-asset momentum.
Fed Decision: The Main Event
The spotlight turns fully to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates for the third time in 2025, bringing the target range closer to 3.5%-3.75%.
It’s a tricky meeting – the Fed will be deciding without a full set of economic reports due to government data delays. Still, the recent uptick in unemployment has pushed major banks toward the same call.
Morgan Stanley even said, “it seems we jumped the gun” on its earlier prediction, while JPMorgan and Bank of America also expect a 25-bps cut. FedMarketWatch now shows an 87.2% probability of a rate cut this week. After the decision, all eyes turn to Jerome Powell’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference.
His guidance on inflation, the slowing job market, and what comes next in January often moves markets more than the decision itself.
OPEC Adds Another Layer
Thursday brings the latest OPEC report. Any signal on supply will feed directly into inflation expectations – something the Fed is watching closely.
A 2023 study found oil and crypto tend to move together in normal markets but flip negative during periods of stress, which makes this update worth watching.
Jobless Claims and a Key Bond Auction
Also on Thursday, jobless claims will be in, following last week’s surprise drop to 191,000, the lowest since 2022. Holiday distortions likely played a role, but the broader picture still shows a labor market cooling, not slipping.
Later, the 30-year bond auction gives another read on investor demand for long-term Treasurys. Last month’s auction cleared at 4.694%. Strong demand WOULD help ease yields – something risk assets, including crypto, generally welcome.
