Ethereum’s Bitcoin-Style Supercycle: Tom Lee’s Bullish Take
Is Ethereum gearing up for a Bitcoin-like supercycle? Fundstrat's Tom Lee thinks so—and the charts are starting to agree.
Key drivers: Institutional inflows, deflationary burn, and DeFi's relentless expansion. The ETH/BTC ratio is waking up—just as whales start accumulating.
But skeptics warn: 'Crypto doesn't do reruns.' Then again, Wall Street still thinks 'blockchain, not Bitcoin'—and we see how that aged.
Ethereum may be entering a similar explosive long-term growth cycle to Bitcoin’s years ago, according to Tom Lee, the executive chair of BitMine. Lee says he sees early signs of what he calls a massive “supercycle,” something he previously witnessed when he recommended Bitcoin at just $1,000 back in 2017. Even though Bitcoin has experienced multiple crashes of up to 75% over the years, it still went on to deliver 100x returns from its first call. Lee now believes ethereum is setting up for a similar journey.
Early 2025 saw Ethereum lagging behind Bitcoin, with BTC soaring to new highs above $126,000 while ETH peaked at $4,946 and quickly lost momentum. Both have since cooled off. Bitcoin is down around 25% from its top, and Ethereum has fallen more than 35%.
According to Lee, this kind of pullback is completely normal in a major cycle. He sees the dips not as weakness but as signs that the market hasn’t fully priced in what’s coming next. Volatility, he says, is simply doubt, and doubt often hides the biggest opportunities. Just as early Bitcoin believers had to stomach huge drops during its 100x rise, Lee thinks Ethereum investors may be facing a similar emotional test right now.
On-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci from CryptoQuant added more perspective by pointing to Ethereum’s long-term holders. With ETH trading NEAR $3,150, he says the token is only about $200 above the average price where long-term accumulators bought their coins. These are the wallets that have been steadily collecting ETH throughout the year.
Ethereum has dipped below this level only once this year, back in April, when global tariffs under President TRUMP briefly shook the market. History shows that whenever ETH drops to the long-term cost level, it rarely stays there for long. That zone tends to be one of the strongest buying opportunities for patient investors.
Kesmeci notes that long-term ETH holdings have surged from 10 million earlier this year to 27 million today. This sharp increase shows growing confidence from committed holders. Even with ETH recently touching $3,023 before recovering to around $3,185, analysts believe the broader trend still points toward strength building under the surface.
Ethereum is still stuck in a tight downtrend, getting rejected at every lower high, but the market is finally showing signs that selling pressure is slowing down. On the daily chart, ETH is holding inside the strong $3K–$3.1K demand zone, with a positive RSI divergence suggesting the bearish momentum is fading. Still, the trend stays weak unless buyers push the price back above $3.45K–$3.55K and reclaim the 200-day MA. On lower timeframes, ETH is squeezed inside a falling wedge, with every breakout attempt blocked at $3.55K and $3.8K.
The price is now hovering near the wedge’s lower edge, where long wicks show buyers stepping in. A MOVE above $3.35K could spark a short bounce toward $3.55K, but failing there keeps the door open for another retest of $3K, or even a quick dip below, before any real recovery begins.
