Arthur Hayes Declares Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Officially Dead - What Comes Next?

Bitcoin's legendary four-year rhythm just flatlined—at least according to one of crypto's most influential voices.

The Halving Hype Fades

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and perpetual crypto commentator, dropped the bombshell that's shaking trading desks from Wall Street to Hong Kong. That predictable post-halving surge? Gone. The reliable boom-bust pattern that defined Bitcoin's first decade? History.

Market Maturation or Manipulation?

Institutional money flooded in—ETF approvals brought billions, but also erased Bitcoin's wild-west personality. The digital gold narrative strengthened while its cyclical soul weakened. Some call it progress, others mourn the loss of crypto's last predictable profit engine.

Traditional finance finally embraced Bitcoin—and promptly strangled what made it special. The ultimate irony? Wall Street's approval might be what kills the very patterns traders relied on for years. Because nothing disrupts a market cycle quite like a billion dollars of boring institutional money chasing 'digital gold' while missing the entire point.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and one of crypto’s most influential thinkers, has a message for the market: the old Bitcoin cycle is gone forever.

Here are some of the most significant insights from his latest blog post titled “Long Live the King”.

The End of a Familiar Pattern

For years, traders have believed that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable four-year rhythm – a rise after every halving, followed by a crash. Hayes says that belief is outdated.

“There have been three cycles where the all-time high occurred every four years,” he wrote. “Traders apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.”

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s past bull runs weren’t driven by halvings at all. They were powered by one thing, that is liquidity. In other words, bitcoin moved with the flow of global money, not with its own supply schedule.

How Money Printing Shaped Bitcoin’s Rise

Hayes breaks Bitcoin’s history into four distinct cycles:

• Genesis Cycle (2009–2013): Born out of the 2008 crisis, fueled by U.S. money printing and China’s credit boom.
• ICO Cycle (2013–2017): Driven by China’s liquidity surge and Ethereum’s arrival.
• COVID Cycle (2017–2021): Fed stimulus and “helicopter money” under Trump sent all assets soaring.
• New World Order (2021–Present): A shift from predictable cycles to policy-driven markets.

Every major rally, he notes, began when money was cheap and plentiful and every crash came when credit tightened.

The New World Order

Today’s market, Hayes says, runs on politics more than halving charts. The U.S. and China, the world’s largest economies, are again turning to easy money.

In the U.S., President TRUMP wants to “run the economy hot” and is pushing for lower interest rates. Treasury policies have already added trillions in liquidity. Meanwhile, China is fighting deflation and preparing to ease credit conditions.

“Money shall be cheaper and more plentiful,” Hayes wrote. “Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”

What It Means for Bitcoin

Has the old Bitcoin cycle really ended? Some of the proof is undeniable. The next phase will depend on global liquidity, not halvings.

Bitcoin, Hayes believes, is still the strongest FORM of money. Only now, its path forward will be shaped by central banks, not block rewards.