Bitcoin’s Record Run Is Just Getting Started: Crypto Daybook Americas

Bitcoin smashes through resistance—but the real rally hasn't even begun.

The Halving Effect: Why This Cycle Is Different

Miners' rewards just got slashed in half, and history says price discovery comes next. Forget 'sell the news'—this is when institutions FOMO in.

Wall Street's Late-Game Play

Goldman's crypto desk is suddenly 're-evaluating BTC allocations' (translation: they missed the bottom again). Meanwhile, retail traders are already stacking sats.

The Cynical Take

Bankers will deny crypto until they finish front-running their clients' orders. By then? You'll be buying their 'blockchain revolution' ETF at a 200% markup.

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 14, 10 p.m.: Singapore High Court hearing on WazirX’s Scheme of Arrangement, marking a critical step in the exchange's restructuring after the $234 million hack on July 18, 2024.
  • July 15: Alchemist staking update launches, allowing token holders to stake ALCH for access to advanced features, premium benefits and ecosystem rewards, potentially boosting token utility and demand.
  • July 15: Lynq is expected to debut its real-time, interest-bearing digital-asset settlement network for institutions. Built on Avalanche’s layer-1 blockchain and powered by Arca’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund shares, Lynq enables instant settlement, continuous yield accrual and improved capital efficiency.
  • July 15, 3 p.m.: U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry holds a market structure hearing titled “Stakeholder Perspectives on Federal Oversight of Digital Commodities.” Livestream link.
  • July 16: July 16, 9 a.m.: U.S. House Ways and Means Committee oversight hearing titled "Making America the Crypto Capital of the World: Ensuring Digital Asset Policy Built for the 21st Century."
• Macro
  • Day 2 of 2: The fourth Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome, bringing together global leaders and stakeholders to advance Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction as the war with Russia drags on.
  • July 11, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases June employment data.
    • Unemployment Rate est. 7.1% vs. Prev. 7%
    • Employment Change Est. 0K vs. Prev. 8.8K
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: Reciprocal tariffs take effect after President Trump’s July 7 executive order delayed the original July 9 deadline, making this the start date for higher tariffs on imports from countries without trade deals.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • July 23: Tesla (TSLA), post-market
  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Compound DAO is running multiple votes on whether to adopt an Oracle Extractable Value (OEV) solution for Ethereum mainnet, Unichain, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Scroll, Mantle, Ronin and Linea. Delegates can choose between implementing Api3, Chainlink’s Secure Value Relay (SVR), or maintaining the current setup without OEV. All votes end July 12.
  • 1inch DAO is voting on a $25,000 grant proposal to research crustless cross-chain swaps between Bitcoin and Ethereum Virtual Machine networks using native Bitcoin tools like Taproot. Voting ends July 14.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a $245,000 funding proposal to expand Gotchi Battler into a revenue-generating game with PvE modes, NFTs and battle passes, aiming to reverse declining player numbers, boost GHST utility and create sustainable rewards. Voting ends July 22.
  • July 16, 5 p.m.: VeChain to host a monthly update with community representatives and the VeChain Foundation.
• Unlocks
  • July 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $56.44 million.
  • July 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $19.04 million.
  • July 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $18.79 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $39.25 million.
  • July 17: ZKSync (ZK) to unlock 2.41% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
  • July 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $10.51 million.
  • July 18: Official TRUMP (TRUMP) to unlock 45.35% of its circulating supply worth $912.43 million.
  • July 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $88.8 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 11: PrompTale AI (TALE) to be listed on Binance, KuCoin, MEXC, and others.
  • July 11: Kraken to list Propy (PRO) and AIOZ Network (AIOZ).
  • July 12: Pump.fun to launch an initial coin offering (ICO) in which 33% of the supply of PUMP will be sold. The ICO will be conducted on Bybit, Kraken, Bitget, MEXC, KuCoin and Gate.io.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

• Day 2 of 4: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
• July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
• July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Ether's (ETH) break above $3,000 catalyzed a sharp rally across Ethereum-native memecoins and ecosystem tokens.
• Memecoins are again serving as leveraged bets on broader ether strength, with flows rotating into lower-cap tokens like MOG for higher upside.
• MOG jumped nearly 40%, lifting its market cap to $645 million, with over $90 million in 24 hour volume.
• PEPE also rallied, adding over 30% over the past week and holding a $6 billion market cap — highlighting its continued dominance among ETH-based memecoins.
• Both MOG and PEPE debuted in 2023 and have since become mainstays in Ethereum’s memecoin ecosystem, trading alongside DOGE and SHIB on major exchanges.
• Outside of memes, protocol tokens also caught a bid, with Lido (LDO) rising 15% and Arbitrum (ARB) gaining 18% in the past day.
• The trend echoes previous cycles, where breakout rallies in core assets like ETH often trickle down into ecosystem tokens and eventually into high-beta meme plays.
• While PEPE remains the largest ETH-native memecoin issued in recent years MOG’s recent run suggests traders are increasingly willing to slide further down the risk curve for exposure.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC and ETH perpetual futures open interest fell even as prices rose late Thursday. The divergence calls for caution on the part of the bulls.
• XRP's open interest continued to rise, lending support to the price rally.
• The market shows little to no signs of overheating with funding rates for major coins only slightly elevated at around 10%, well short of the 50% threshold that suggests overheating.
• On Deribit, the $120K call is the most popular option, boasting an open interest of over $2 billion. That's the key level to watch out for as BTC's rally gathers steam.
• Risk reversals show call bias across tenors, with demand for upside more pronounced at the short-end, a sign of under positioned traders chasing the rally with short-term bullish bets.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 6.8% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $118,308 (24hrs: 6.42%)
• ETH is up 8% at $3,006.71 (24hrs: 7.92%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 5.3% at 3,513.29 (24hrs: 7.33%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 5 bps at 3.00%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0300% (10.9500% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.09% at 97.74
• Gold futures are up 0.82% at $3,352.90
• Silver futures are up 2.98% at $38.42
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.19% at 39,569.68
• Hang Seng closed up 0.46% at 24,139.57
• FTSE is down 0.55% at 8,926.12
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.22% at 5,372.21
• DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.43% at 44,650.64
• S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 6,280.46
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.09% at 20,630.66
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.41% at 27,082.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.14% at 2,639.33
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 3.7 bps at 4.383%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.62% at 6,284.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.56% at 22,885.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.68% at 44,601.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 64.77% (0.16%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02544 (unchanged)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 916 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $64.17
• Total Fees: 4.97 BTC / $558,499
• CME Futures Open Interest: 152,685 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 35.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.08%

Technical Analysis

• BTC's dominance rate is about to penetrate the uptrend line.
• The impending breakdown indicates that outperformance of alternative cryptocurrencies relative to bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $421.74 (+1.52%), up 3.38% pre-market at $436.06
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $388.96 (+4.04%), up 1.58% pre-market at $395.12
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $202.9 (+1.11%), down 0.5% pre-market at $201.91
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.41 (+1.19%), up 2.55% pre-market at $20.93
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19 (+2.93%), up 3.51% pre-market at $19.66
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.59 (+2.86%), up 3.89% pre-market at $#13.08
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.18 (-1.86%), down 1% pre-market at $13.05
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.9 (+3.45%), up 3.33% pre-market at $13.33
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.49 (+0.99%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $45.97 (+8.62%), up 2.9% pre-market at $47.3
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.79 (-1.88%), up 3.24% pre-market at $32.47

ETF Flows

• Daily net flows: $1,175.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $51.31 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.26 million

• Daily net flows: $383.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $5.12 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~4.29 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The total amount of DeFi loans outstanding has increased to nearly $28 billion, topping the previous life time high of $26.4 billion in December, according to data source Artemis.
• Its a sign of acceleration in the on-chain lending business, a sign of investor willingness to take more risk.

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump Threatens 35% Tariff on Some Canadian Goods (The Wall Street Journal): Trump raised tariffs on Canadian imports not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement from 25% to 35%, while compliant goods remain exempt. Canada aims to reach a deal by Aug. 1.
• Bitcoin Rockets Past $118K, Leads to Over $1B Shorts Getting Liquidated (CoinDesk): More than $1.13 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, including $1.01 billion from shorts, led by bitcoin and ether futures at $590 million and $241 million, respectively.
• Markets Embolden Trump on Tariffs, Stoking Fear He’ll Go Too Far (Bloomberg): Trump cited record market highs while floating a 15%–20% universal baseline tariff Thursday. JPMorgan’s CEO warned traders may be underestimating the risks of rising global trade tensions.
• Bitcoin's Record Rally From $70K to $118K: A Tale of Transition From Wild West to Wall Street-Like Dynamics (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s latest rally features steady gains and declining volatility, reflecting institutional adoption and market maturity. Current macro conditions may keep volatility low, though unexpected shocks could still trigger sharp spikes.
• Robinhood’s OpenAI Tokens Walk a Legal Tightrope, Says Crypto Lawyer (CoinDesk): Lawyer John Montague warned that tokenizing private company shares carries risks of lawsuits from those firms, regulatory blowback due to securities laws’ requirements and investor losses if the platform goes bankrupt.
• Some of Iran’s Enriched Uranium Survived Attacks, Israeli Official Says (The New York Times): Israeli intelligence believes enriched uranium stored deep at Isfahan survived June’s strikes, but says any Iranian recovery effort would likely be detected in time for a renewed attack.

In the Ether