Trump’s Strike on Iran Nuclear Site Sends Strait of Hormuz Blockade Probability Soaring to 52% on Polymarket

Geopolitical tensions just turned the oil markets into a casino—and Polymarket traders are placing their bets.

After U.S. airstrikes hit Iran's nuclear facilities, prediction markets now see a 52% chance Tehran retaliates by choking off the world's most critical oil chokepoint. That's up from just 18% last week—because nothing says 'stable markets' like betting on potential global supply shocks.

The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global oil shipments. Block it, and crude prices could double overnight. No wonder degenerate traders are piling in—after all, what's a little geopolitical Armageddon between profit opportunities?

Meanwhile, traditional hedgers are stuck with boring old futures contracts. How quaint.

As of writing, the cryptocurrency market has not shown any signs of panic, with bitcoin BTC continuing to trade above $100,000, per CoinDesk data.

President Donald TRUMP confirmed airstrikes Saturday evening, saying the attack Obliterated three critical Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, calling "the bully of the Middle East [Iran] to make peace."