Crypto’s $500B Phoenix: Recovery From Historic Crash Fuels Q4 Rebound Prospects

Digital assets stage dramatic comeback after brutal market wipeout—setting the stage for what could be the sector's strongest quarterly performance in years.

The Anatomy of a Rebound

Market infrastructure proves resilient as trading volumes surge and institutional capital cautiously returns. Exchange reserves stabilize while derivatives markets signal renewed bullish positioning.

Institutional Players Double Down

Traditional finance giants quietly accumulate positions during the downturn—because nothing says 'conviction' like buying when everyone else is panicking. Their compliance departments probably hated every minute of it.

Technical Foundations Strengthen

Blockchain activity metrics flash green across major networks. Settlement finality holds firm while transaction costs remain contained—the plumbing works even when the speculators flee.

The Regulatory Overhang Clears

Policymakers finally acknowledge what traders knew months ago: you can't regulate what you don't understand, but you can certainly tax it.

Market veterans watch the rebound with cautious optimism—remembering that in crypto, today's recovery narrative can become tomorrow's 'what were we thinking' moment. The only thing more volatile than the prices might be the analysts' price targets.

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Oct. 13: CME Group aiming to launch options on SOL and XRP, subject to regulatory approval.
• Macro
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Superfluid DAO is voting on a proposal to upgrade contracts for wrapper superTokens like ETHx and USDCx so the DAO can invest their underlying assets and generate yield income for its treasury. Voting ends Oct. 13.
  • ENS DAO is voting on a proposal to establish reverse records for its core contracts to improve identification, usability, and demonstrate best practices by fully using the ENS protocol. Voting ends Oct. 13.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • Oct. 14: SANDchain, a zk-powered Ethereum layer-2, launches.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Oct. 13-15: Digital Asset Summit 2025 (London)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• The crypto market kicked off Monday with a rebound in the wake of a sharp weekend leverage flush. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%, suggesting those liquidated at the weekend are repurchasing their positions.
• A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend with the vast majority being attributed to those holding long positions, in the past 24 hours, however, $626 billion was liquidated with $420 billion of that being on the short side, demonstrating a reversal in sentiment, according to CoinGlass.
• The recovery has been tentative so far; the dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated at about 58.45%, down modestly from recent highs, which implies altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.
• The big winner of Monday's recovery was synthetix (SNX), which rose by more than 12

Derivatives Positioning

• The BTC futures market has stabilized after a volatile period. Open interest, which had dropped from $33 billion to $23 billion over the weekend, has now settled at around $26 billion. Similarly, the 3-month annualized basis has rebounded to the 6-7% range, after dipping to 4-5% over the weekend, indicating that the bullish sentiment has largely returned. However, funding rates remain a key area of divergence; while Bybit and Hyperliquid have settled around 10%, Binance's rate is negative.
• The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean. The 24-hour Put/Call Volume has shifted to be more in favor of calls, now at over 56%. Additionally, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew has risen to 2.5% after a period of flatness.
• These metrics indicate a market with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection, reflecting a shift away from the recent "cautious neutrality."
• Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24 hour liquidations, with a 34-66 split between longs and shorts. ETH ($218 million), BTC ($124 million) and SOL ($43 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations. Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.48% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $115,132.15 (24hrs: 3.05%)
• ETH is up 0.97% at $4,166.14 (24hrs: 8.96%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.42% at 3,852.77 (24hrs: +6.92%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 98 bps at 2.92%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0012% (-1.367% annualized) on Binance
• DXY is up 0.13% at 99.11
• Gold futures are up 2.37% at $4,095.10
• Silver futures are up 5.08% at $49.65
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.01% at 48,088.80
• Hang Seng closed down 1.52% at 25,889.48
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,428.00
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% at 5,568.86
• DJIA closed on Friday down 1.90% at 45,479.60
• S&P 500 closed down 2.71% at 6,552.51
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 3.56% at 22,204.43
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.38% at 29,850.89
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.54% at 2,785.96
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 8.9 bps at 4.059%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.35% at 6,684.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.88% at 24,856.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.97% at 46,150.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.22% (-0.44%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03617 (0.11%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,021 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $48.33
• Total Fees: 2.43 BTC / $274,808
• CME Futures Open Interest: 145,105 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.06%

Technical Analysis

• Following the largest liquidation event in the industry's history, major cryptocurrency prices have begun to stabilize, gradually reverting to levels seen the previous week. ETH briefly dipped to $3,400 before rebounding to reclaim the weekly range lows around $4,070.
• Notably, the $3,400 zone aligns with the EMA200 on the daily timeframe, providing a strong technical support. ETH is currently trading near $4,150, just below the daily EMA50.
• Bulls will want to see a weekly close above the $4,070, effectively establishing a swing low and signalling renewed strength in the trend.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $357.01 (-7.75%)
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $132.94 (-11.66%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.38 (-6.73%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $60.41 (-9.44%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.65 (-7.67%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.01 (-5.7%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.52 (+2.66%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.28 (-4.03%)
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $55.34 (-3.87%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.5 (-3.94%)

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $304.79 (-4.84%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $26.8 (-5.37%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.31 (-9.65%)
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.35 (-7.3%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.47 (-2.76%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$4.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $62.73 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.36 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$174.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $14.92 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 6.87 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• No, Ethena's USDe Didn't De-peg (CoinDesk): The supposed de-pegging was only limited to Binance while deviations were much more restrained on other major liquid avenues like Curve.
• BTC Mining Firm Marathon (MARA) Scoops Up 400 BTC After Price Crash, On-Chain Data Show (CoinDesk): Data from Arkham Intelligence apparently shows Marathon bought 400 bitcoin via custodian Anchorage Digital shortly after last Friday's flash crash.
• Silver Roars Higher on Short Squeeze as Gold Rallies to Record (Bloomberg): Scarce supplies and surging demand in London have driven traders to fly silver across the Atlantic, as fears of U.S. tariffs on critical minerals, which includes silver, intensify pressure on prices.
• How the United States Is Eating Trump’s Tariffs (Reuters): Research tracking hundreds of thousands of goods shows U.S. firms absorbing most tariff costs and raising prices, adding to inflation pressures and weakening demand for foreign exports.