Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Collapse Eliminates Crash Risk, Declares Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin's notorious boom-bust pattern just got a major rewrite—and the implications are seismic for digital asset markets.
The Cycle Shift That Changes Everything
Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and crypto oracle, drops the bombshell: Bitcoin's predictable four-year rhythm has flatlined. No more counting down to catastrophic corrections. No more white-knuckling through historical crash windows. The digital gold narrative just got a serious hardware upgrade.
Market Mechanics Rewired
Institutional adoption torpedoed the old patterns. BlackRock and Fidelity don't operate on retail emotion cycles. Their trillion-dollar balance sheets create gravitational pull that overrides previous market physics. The 'when lambo' crowd now rides shotgun with the 'which pension fund' institutional wave.
Traditional finance analysts scrambling to update their spreadsheets—watching from the sidelines as their precious technical indicators render about as useful as a Blockbuster membership card.
The New Crypto Calculus
This isn't just about avoiding crashes. It's about recalibrating risk models across the entire digital asset spectrum. If Bitcoin's bedrock cycle is dead, what other 'certainties' need re-examining? The rulebook isn't just being rewritten—it's being burned and replaced with quantum-resistant code.
Wall Street's reaction? Probably still trying to short something that no longer exists—the financial equivalent of bringing a knife to a quantum computing fight.
The halving cycle
Halving refers to the programmed reduction in the per-block BTC emission every four years.
Since its inception in 2009, BTC has typically followed a roughly four-year cycle, characterized by a bull run leading up to and following the quadrennial reward halving, followed by an intense bear market that usually begins 16 to 18 months after the halving event.
The most recent, fourth bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024. Hence, some market participants may be concerned that BTC's uptrend will soon peak, potentially paving the way for a year-long bear market.
This time is different
The ongoing bull market is likely to continue, invalidating the four-year cycle because monetary conditions are expected to remain accommodative, with money supply growth likely to accelerate rather than contract.
The U.S. government and its central bank are already in an easing mode and Japan could soon join the fray as the new PM is a big believer in the ultra-stimulatory Abenomics strategy.
"In the U.S., newly elected President TRUMP wants to run the economy hot. He routinely speaks about America growing in order to reduce its debt load," Hayes noted. "Trump also speaks about lowering the cost of housing to release trillions of dollars of trapped home equity because of the rapid rise in housing prices post-2008."
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to around 4% in September 2025 and is expected to implement further reductions totaling up to 100 basis points over the next 12 months, signaling a more accommodative monetary stance.
Lastly, Hayes noted that although China may not be as stimulatory as in previous Bitcoin bull runs, Beijing’s focus on ending deflation suggests it is unlikely to drain fiat liquidity, supporting continued price gains for BTC.
Hayes summed up this outlook by saying: "Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future."
