U.S. Jobs Report Shakes Crypto Markets: What Traders Need to Know

Another jobs report, another crypto rollercoaster—because apparently, Bitcoin still cares about legacy finance metrics. Here’s how the latest U.S. employment data sent shockwaves through digital asset markets.

The Domino Effect

Strong jobs numbers? Traders panic about Fed rate hikes. Weak numbers? They fret over economic collapse. Crypto’s decoupling narrative took a coffee break as BTC and ETH swung wildly on the news.

Market Whiplash in Real-Time

Alts followed Bitcoin’s lead like lemmings—some tokens lost double-digits in minutes. Stablecoin flows spiked as traders played musical chairs with risk exposure.

The Institutional Angle

Wall Street’s crypto desks reportedly adjusted positions pre-report. Guess those ‘uncorrelated asset’ pitch decks need another revision.

Bottom line: Until crypto grows up, it’ll keep reacting to economic data like a moody teenager—volatile, unpredictable, and occasionally brilliant. Just ask the degenerate traders who bought the dip (again).

Details of U.S. Employment Data

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided extensive remarks mid-week, followed by the PCE data release on the subsequent day, and now the employment figures are revealed. Powell emphasized monitoring inflation, anticipating the introduction of tariffs at 7 AM today, which are expected to generate inflationary effects. If the anticipated weakening in employment is not evident, it might delay this year’s potential interest rate cut, as seen in yesterday’s PCE results exceeding expectations and tariffs being enacted.

For the Fed to reduce rates from slightly above the neutral range, there must be a significant deterioration in employment levels.

The reported figures are as follows:

• U.S. Unemployment Rate Announced: 4.2% (Expectation: 4.2%, Previous: 4.1%)
• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Announced: 73K (Expectation: 104K, Previous: 147K)
• U.S. Average Earnings Announced: 3.9% (Expectation: 3.8%, Previous: 3.7%)

While the unemployment rate aligns with expectations, the weakening in non-farm payrolls provides leverage for the Fed regarding potential rate cuts. However, the above-expected rise in average earnings presents an intriguing scenario amidst weakening demand. Although non-farm payroll weakening could somewhat stabilize the current downturn, employment figures still do not signal alarm.

This stability may not suffice to change Powell’s stance of opting for waiting until early 2026 for rate adjustments rather than resorting to immediate cuts followed by rate hikes for the next two years.

Investors perceive a 75% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting based on futures trading, whereas pre-release estimations placed this likelihood at 45%.