Fed Alarm Bells Ringing: Is the US Economy Headed for a Radical Transformation?

The Federal Reserve's latest signals suggest turbulence ahead—but Wall Street's still placing bets like it's 2021.

Monetary Policy Whiplash

Powell & Co. are sweating over inflation metrics that refuse to behave, with rate-cut fantasies getting crushed by stubborn CPI data. The dot plot's looking more like a Rorschach test for economists.

Yield Curve Theater

That 2s10s spread isn't just inverted—it's doing gymnastics. Treasury markets smell blood, while 'soft landing' talk gets quieter by the FOMC meeting.

Crypto's Perverse Hedge

Bitcoin's flirting with $70K again as traditional assets wobble. Funny how 'risk-off' flows keep finding their way to the most volatile asset class—almost like the system's broken.

The Fed's stuck between recession fears and inflation monsters. Meanwhile, bankers keep getting bonuses for moving deck chairs on this Titanic economy.

Insights from the Fed Minutes

President TRUMP has been sending tariff letters, indicating them as part of a negotiation or agreement process. Numerous countries have received these letters, and if Trump keeps his word, the European Union will be next. The current tariff rates are similar to those which prompted a significant market drop on April 2nd, suggesting the three-month negotiation period did not yield much progress. Hopes for a tariff resolution now rest on an extended three-week negotiation period.

President Trump previously contended that tariffs had no impact on inflation, referencing a study to support his claim. However, Fed members have consistently and explicitly expressed disagreement with this view.

Key Details from the Fed Minutes

We have compiled significant details from the Fed minutes (the list will be updated for 5 minutes):

• A few participants stated that the Fed’s interest rate might not substantially exceed the neutral rate.
• All participants deemed it appropriate to maintain the Fed’s interest rate within the current target range.
• They concurred that while the risks of increasing inflation and weakening labor market conditions had reduced, they remained at high levels.
• The participants also noted that the reduction in announced and anticipated tariffs had decreased economic uncertainty but that overall uncertainty remained high.
• Fed officials predicted higher real GDP growth for 2025 and lower inflation than earlier forecasts.
• The New York Fed SOMA President indicated that market participants foresaw a Fed portfolio of $6.2 trillion or about 20% of GDP, reserves of $2.9 trillion, and a low ONRRP balance.
• A few participants mentioned considering a rate cut during the July meeting if the data evolved as anticipated.
• Some participants argued against a rate cut in 2025, citing high recent inflation figures, robust employment, consumer inflation expectations, and ongoing economic resilience.

The Fed minutes appear to emphasize the importance of reaching tariff agreements. We have already seen statements from Waller and two other members discussing rate cuts, identifying some “July rate cut-expecting members.” However, with inflation data coming in high amid strong employment, it remains uncertain whether their decisions have changed. President Trump’s targeted high tariff rates for August 1st might have started worrying Fed members recently. Despite the positive insights from the minutes, Bitcoin$109,184 remains unable to climb.