JPMorgan’s Diverging Take on Stablecoin Market: Cautious Growth Ahead?

Stablecoins hit a fork in the road—JPMorgan's analysts can't agree on the path forward.

Bullish or bearish? The banking giant's internal divide mirrors the crypto industry's own identity crisis.

Meanwhile, TradFi veterans smirk—'volatility hedging' sounds suspiciously like gambling with extra steps.

JPMorgan’s Cautious Stablecoin Projections for 2028

According to JPMorgan’s report, the stablecoin supply currently stands around 250 billion dollars, predicting a possible doubling over the next three years. Analysts find comparisons between decentralized structures and centralized payment giants like Alipay or WeChat Pay misleading. They argue that stablecoins playing a significant role in everyday payments WOULD require regulatory clarity and substantial improvements in user experience.

The bank also notes that conversion costs between fiat and cryptocurrencies, combined with the interest-free nature of stablecoins, will hinder mass transitions from traditional financial assets. Thus, crypto-focused demand is expected to remain the primary catalyst, with attractive payment scenarios only slightly enhancing the total market size.

Standard Chartered’s Regulation-Backed Optimistic Growth Scenario

In contrast to JPMorgan’s cautious forecasts, Standard Chartered suggested in an April study that with the adoption of the Genius Law in the US, stablecoin supply could surge to 2 trillion dollars by the end of 2028. The bank anticipates this regulation will legitimize the sector, attracting institutional capital and nearly multiplying the supply tenfold.

The contrasting projections from the two institutions underscore that the regulatory framework will be a decisive factor in the future of stablecoins. On one hand, moderate, cryptocurrency-driven growth; on the other, rapid expansion propelled by comprehensive legal support. Market participants are keenly waiting for the US Congress to pass the Genius Law to see which path will dominate.